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USC vs Notre Dame -2.5 O/U 52.5
This should be a very good game to watch. From a fan perspective, I am kind of bummed for Notre dame. Really rough schedule thus far, but from a bettor perspective, I am glad that they lost last week. USC’s defense is bad. They have given up over 100 points their last three games vs Arizona State, and Injured Colorado team and Arizona. They were lucky to get out of Tucson last Saturday. Two matchups that I like for Notre Dame is that even though Caleb Williams is the top pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, the Irish have the secondary to slow down the pass. Guys like Xavier Watts, Ben Morrison and Cam Hart will most likely be playing on Sundays. The Irish rank 9th in defensive passing success rate and 4th in opponent QBR. I also like the rushing matchup advantage for Notre Dame as USC can not stop the run ranking 69th in opponent rush EPA while not even playing a team with a pulse. USC hasn’t even played a top 50 team as of yet, and that is very concerning. Notre Dame’s strength of schedule thus far ranks 65th to USC’s 85th. Notre Dame should be able to move the ball on the ground at 5.03 yards per rush. I expect a big bounce back here for the Irish in a night game.
Notre Dame -2.5 – 2 stars
Oregon vs Washington -3 O/U 67
This might be the best game for the weekend. Before the season started I bet both of these teams to win the PAC12 at around 3.5-1 and this game will shore up who has the lead. Both of these offenses are amazing at number one and number two in success rates. Washington is a crazy 8.81 yards per play while Oregon is at 8.06. Looking at the other side of the ball, you have to give the nod to Oregon’s defense ranking 17th in success rate to Washington’s 80th. Washington give’s up five yards per play to Oregon’s four. Oregon is number one is adjusted EPA margin while Washington is 13th. I think both strength of schedule’s aren’t that far off from each other especially being that Washington played Arizona with a backup quarterback. In my opinion, this game will be won on the defensive side of the ball. I also think that Oregon has more talent as a whole than Washington does being that their recruiting has averaged 10th over the past three years to Washington’s 47th. I do not love Bo Nix on the road, but I have to take the three points here. I also lean over the total and I would take it if there wasn’t for potential rain.
Oregon +3 – 2 stars
