Army vs Georgia State +6.5 O/U 57
So I got burned on Army last week and I should have paid more attention to Western Kentucky’s run defense allowing 3 yards per rush. I am not going to let that affect me this week. Instead I am going with the same theory of Georgia State isn’t good against the triple option and they can’t stop the run. The Panthers allow 5.6 yards per rush this year and they haven’t even faced a good rushing team. Last year Georgia State lost to Georgia Southern who is another option team by over 20 points. Army on the other hand still has a pretty good defense allowing only 5.2 yards per play and 21 points per game against teams like Michigan, Tulane and Western Kentucky. This is a complete matchup play eliminating possessions from the Panthers who needs to play at a fast pace. Georgia State averages 2nd in pace of play at 85 plays per game while Army is 3rd from last at 61. Last stat I am going to give you is that the Panthers are 4-2 this year yet they are over -1 in net yards per play. This one is easy for me and I am calling out the fraud here. I am taking Army.
Army -6.0 – 2.5 star premium shared – Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me
Florida vs South Carolina +5.5 O/U 48.5
Everyone is asking how Florida will get up for this game after the LSU game. It can go 2 ways. The can look defeated on offense or they really step it up knowing if they win out, that they are in the playoffs. One thing i do know is that their defense WILL show up. Even counting that tough LSU game their defense only allows 14 points per game and 5.2 yards per play. South Carolina on the other hand is in a HUGE let down spot after beating Georgia and they have all some of their skill positions banged up and questionable for this weeks game. QB Ryan Hilinki is also banged up but will play. Another thing that you can’t ignore about this game is that South Carolina has only been allowing 23 points per game and 5.3 yards per play while they have played the hardest schedule in football in Alabama, North Carolina, Georgia and Missouri. Due to Hilinski’s injury I see a lot of running the ball here and even if Florida’s offense does show up, they still are just middle of the road in points per game and yards per play. SCs defense will step it up at home.
Under 48.5 points gets it down for 2 stars premium shared
Clemson vs Louisville +23.5 O/U 60.5
Clemson has been disrespected in the marketplace after almost losing to North Carolina. For the first time in a very long time the Tigers are not a top 2 team according to the AP and many power ratings out there. Trevor Lawrence isn’t even in Feisman discussion. This if anything should motivate them to put up some points with all of their studs like Tee Higgens and Travis Etienne. The question for me here is not if Louisville can cover this spread, it is if Louisville can score 21 points. It is true that Clemson is 3rd in defense in yards per game and 7th in points per game but who have they played? The answer is NOBODY in the top 40 in yards per game! Louisville ranks 17th at 480 yards per game, 19th in yards per play and 21st in points per game at 36.4. Clemson is averaging 39 themselves while shutting it down in most 4th quarters. Louisville is at home here and I expect a lot of points this game. Take the over.
Over 60.5 – 2 star premium shared
