Bowling Green vs Central Michigan -6.5 O/U 51
It’s time for some maction, even though the games are still on Saturdays and not on Tuesdays until week 10. Bowling Green isn’t the pathetic team that they were over the past 10 years or so. They have been upgraded to just bad. In saying that, so is Central Michigan. Both teams are 74th or worse in defensive success rate as well as EPA. Bowling Green is a bad -1.3 net yards per play while Central Michigan is about even hence the -6.5 point spread. If I could say anything nice about each team, they both average a little over 25 points per game counting some difficult non-conference games. On the other side of the coin, Bowling green gives up 37 points per game while the Chippewas give up over 29. I like the over in this game. Both teams play at a higher pace with Central ranking 21st and Bowling Green ranking 37th. Weather looks good as well.
Over 51 – 2.5 stars
Texas vs Oklahoma State +6.5 O/U 62
What have we learned about Texas. Well they seem pretty resilient for one. They should have beaten Alabama and they creamed Oklahoma without a quarterback. The question is, what has Texas done on the road? Wait, you mean to tell me they have had only one road game? And they lost!? This spread bugs the heck out of me. Oklahoma State hasn’t quite played the schedule that Texas has played, but they at last went on the road last and choked the game to overtime against the TCU. Oklahoma State also beat Big 12 champion Baylor a few weeks back. I must admit, I was on TCU last week, but my mistake was assuming that just because the Pokes do not rank high in the advanced metrics, doesn’t mean that they deserve to be a big dog here at home. Both of these teams are still in the hunt here for the Big 12 championship, and Oklahoma State will be able to get after Quinn Ewers ranking 21st in Sack margin and 11h in defensive adjusted line yards. No real power rating has Texas more than a 3 point road favorite on the road here. I assume that some think that Sanders won’t be playing, but I do not understand why that is when he finished the game just fine last week. This handicap is more about Texas being on the road. I feel that they underperform in these situations. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Oklahoma State +6.5 – 3 stars
