College Football Week 8!
Maryland vs Iowa – 10 O/U 47.5
Iowa coming in at 5-1 ATS and Maryland 4-2. So I have this game as an 8.5 in my power ratings. I hit this line early at +13. Maryland is 4-2 against the spread this year and has a very slight net yards per play edge in this one with both teams around 6 yards per play and defense giving up around 4.5. What I like here about Maryland is that they had a slightly harder schedule playing Texas, Temple and Michigan as their hard games while Iowa has played Iowa State (early), Wisconsin and Minnesota. This is similar to the Air force bet that we made taking the dog when it was more than 20% of the total.
Maryland +10
NC State vs Clemson -16 O/U 55.5 – I have Clemson by 18 hear so I am not super excited about taking a side here. One matchup I will be looking at is if NC State can stop the run when they are averaging 3.7 yards per run allowed on Defense and if they can have the time to pass the ball against a more of a suspect Clemson pass D that allowed 250 yards against Syracuse and 430 yards against Kellen Mond from Texas A & M…
No Play but lean NC State
Fresno State vs New Mexico – Premium
Georgia State vs Arkansas State – Premium
Kansas vs Texas Tech – Premium
Buffalo vs Toledo + 1.5 O/U 66
Buffalo is 5-2 ATS and Toledo is 2-4 this year. Since Lance Leopold arrived last year they are a 3rd best 14-5 ATS. I really do not see why Buffalo opened up at +3 in this game. They have a .7 yards net yards per play advantage here and they give up less than 3.9 yards per run while Toledo gives up 5.3 yards per play. Both schedules have been similair Maybe this spread opened up like this because how fast Toledo plays but I think Buffalo can control this game by pounding the football with Kevin Marks and Jarret Patterson. Of course the Tyree Jackson to Anthony Johnson combination is there if needed.
Buffalo +1.5 and ML
Oklahoma vs TCU +7.5 O/U 61
So I love this spot here. Both teams have not been performing well against the spread with TCU at 1-4-1 and Oklahoma at 2-4. Now Oklahoma is coming off a Bye week and a loss right before that and that is why I like this spot so much.. Last week these kids watched 4 top 10 teams go down and almost 6 of them actually. These kids know that they still have a legitimate shot at the NCAA playoffs and are now rested up for it. TCU on the other hand had a bad loss against a pretty good Texas Tech team on their second string QB. Oklahoma is number 1 in yards per play at 8.9 yards and that is a half yard higher than 2nd play Bama. Oklahoma has over 3 yards per play more then what their defense gives up per game and outscores their opponents by 21 points. TCU is at 5.6 yards per play and gives up 4.6 outscoring their opponents by about 8 points. This spread is wrong and Oklahoma should be favored by over 10
Oklahoma -7.5 large
Wake Forest vs Florida State -10.5 O/U 60
So the question here to me is which Florida State home team shows up here? The one that got smoked by Virginia Tech or the one that should have beaten Miami outright. What I am am looking at here is their last 3 games. Instead of looking at their bad start I see them averaging 31 points per game the last 3 games and 5.4 yards per play at home. Wake forest on the other hand is the fastest playing team in Football averaging 91 plays per game. Wake Forest still averages over 32 points per game and 5.2 yards per play even after only scoring 3 points vs Clemson 2 weeks ago. Another glaring thing is that they have the 12th worst defense in the league allowing 6.7 yards per play and 37 points per game. Wake forest is also now very banged up on Defense. This O/U is way too small at 60 points and should be around 66 or 67.
Florida State over 60
Oregon vs Washington State -2.5 O/U 66.5 (I have this game at a pickem)
Oregon had a huge win last week vs Washington and that doesn’t go unnoticed, but what also doesn’t go unnoticed is the let down spot the next week. I like handicapping WASU games because you can pretty much throw out how well the other team defends the run. This is kinda sad against the run because Oregon averages 3.2 yards per run allowed on defense but a more suspect 8.1 yards per passing attempt. Oregon has had only 1 road game so far this year against Cal. Washington State allows only 4.2 yards per play at home meaning they can stop both the run and he pass. I think WaSu wins by at least 4 in a let down and travel spot.
New Mexico from +16.5 to +13.5 hosting Fresno State over 40% difference
NFL Plays:
