College Football Week 8, NFL Week 7

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College Football Week 8!

Maryland vs Iowa – 10 O/U 47.5

Iowa coming in at 5-1 ATS and Maryland 4-2.  So I have this game as an 8.5 in my power ratings.   I hit this line early at +13.   Maryland is 4-2 against the spread this year and has a very slight net yards per play edge in this one with both teams around 6 yards per play and defense giving up around 4.5.   What I like here about Maryland is that they had a slightly harder schedule playing Texas, Temple and Michigan as their hard games while Iowa has played Iowa State (early), Wisconsin and Minnesota.   This is similar to the Air force bet that we made taking the dog when it was more than 20% of the total.

Maryland +10

NC State vs Clemson -16 O/U 55.5 – I have Clemson by 18 hear so I am not super excited about taking a side here.   One matchup I will be looking at is if NC State can stop the run when they are averaging 3.7 yards per run allowed on Defense and if they can have the time to pass the ball against a more of a suspect Clemson pass D that allowed 250 yards against Syracuse and 430 yards against Kellen Mond from Texas A & M…

No Play but lean NC State

Fresno State vs New Mexico – Premium

Georgia State vs Arkansas State – Premium

Kansas vs Texas Tech – Premium

Buffalo vs Toledo + 1.5 O/U 66

Buffalo is 5-2 ATS and Toledo is 2-4 this year.   Since Lance Leopold arrived last year they are a 3rd best 14-5 ATS.   I really do not see why Buffalo opened up at +3 in this game.   They have a .7 yards net yards per play advantage here and they give up less than 3.9 yards per run while Toledo gives up 5.3 yards per play.   Both schedules have been similair  Maybe this spread opened up like this because how fast Toledo plays but I think Buffalo can control this game by pounding the football with Kevin Marks and Jarret Patterson.   Of course the Tyree Jackson to Anthony Johnson combination is there if needed.

Buffalo +1.5 and ML

Oklahoma vs TCU +7.5 O/U 61

So I love this spot here.   Both teams have not been performing well against the spread with TCU at 1-4-1 and Oklahoma at 2-4.   Now Oklahoma is coming off a Bye week and a loss right before that and that is why I like this spot so much..   Last week these kids watched 4 top 10 teams go down and almost 6 of them actually.   These kids know that they still have a legitimate shot at the NCAA playoffs and are now rested up for it.   TCU on the other hand had a bad loss against a pretty good Texas Tech team on their second string QB.  Oklahoma is number 1 in yards per play at 8.9 yards and that is a half yard higher than 2nd play Bama.   Oklahoma has over 3 yards per play more then what their defense gives up per game and outscores their opponents by 21 points.   TCU is at 5.6 yards per play and gives up 4.6 outscoring their opponents by about 8 points.     This spread is wrong and Oklahoma should be favored by over 10

Oklahoma -7.5 large

Wake Forest vs Florida State -10.5 O/U 60

So the question here to me is which Florida State home team shows up here?   The one that got smoked by Virginia Tech or the one that should have beaten Miami outright.    What I am am looking at here is their last 3 games.   Instead of looking at their bad start I see them averaging 31 points per game the last 3 games and 5.4 yards per play at home.   Wake forest on the other hand is the fastest playing team in Football averaging 91 plays per game.   Wake Forest still averages over 32 points per game and 5.2 yards per play even after only scoring 3 points vs Clemson 2 weeks ago.   Another glaring thing is that they have the 12th worst defense in the league allowing 6.7 yards per play and 37 points per game.  Wake forest is also now very banged up on Defense.   This O/U is way too small at 60 points and should be around 66 or 67.

Florida State over 60

Oregon vs Washington State -2.5 O/U 66.5  (I have this game at a pickem)

Oregon had a huge win last week vs Washington and that doesn’t go unnoticed, but what also doesn’t go unnoticed is the let down spot the next week.   I like handicapping WASU games because you can pretty much throw out how well the other team defends the run.   This is kinda sad against the run because Oregon averages 3.2 yards per run allowed on defense but a more suspect 8.1 yards per passing attempt.   Oregon has had only 1 road game so far this year against Cal.   Washington State allows only 4.2 yards per play at home meaning they can stop both the run and he pass.   I think WaSu wins by at least 4 in a let down and travel spot.

Colorado vs Washington -15 O/U 51.5
Playing the spot where Colorado has a great shot to still win the Pac 12 and Washington’s hopes and dreams of Playoffs were defeated last week vs Oregon.   I also think Travon McMillen might have some success running the ball vs this Huskies defense after what was shown last week..
Colorado +15
Michigan vs Michigan State +7.5 O/U 41.5 (huge jump) I have this as Michigan -5 but waiting to play it.
North Texas vs UAB +1 O/U 54 – I have this game as close to a pickem
4.   Do you have any games you would like to discuss?
5.   Do you have a free pick for our listeners?
Fresno State +14.5 vs New Mexico
Sharp Line Movement:
Temple hosting Cincinnati at -3.5
Auburn vs Ole Miss to -4 from -2.5
Dual Action on Buffalo to -1.5 from +3.0
Florida Atlantic at Marshall to -3 from PK
Colorado at Washington to +15 from +17
Tennessee hosting Bama at +29
Coastal Carolina at Umass to +2.5 from +3.5
Missouri hosting Memphis from -7 to -9.5
Cal from -7 to -7.5 at Oregon State
East Carolina +25.5 to +21 hosting Central Florida – I hit this at +25.5 but couldn’t give it out on time
Southern Miss -16 to -17.5 hosting UTSA
New Mexico from +16.5 to +13.5 hosting Fresno State over 40% difference
Old Dominion +5 to +4.5 at Western Kentucky
N Texas at UAB at +1
San Diego State -27 to -28 hosting San Jose State
Totals:
Colorado State vs Boise from 57 to 62
Michigan vs Michigan State under from 47.5 to 41.5  Huge but no value now
Cincinnati vs Temple over 48.5
Utah State vs Wyoming under from 55 to 52 – still some value
Charlotte vs Middle Tennessee state under form 52.5 to 49.5 a 59% difference
Colorado vs Washington Under 51.5 a 50% point difference between ticket count and money
Minnesota vs Nebraska under 56 a 55% difference wow
Miss State vs LSU over 44.5
N Texas vs UAB over from 52 to 54.5

NFL Plays:

New England vs Chicago +3.5
Nothing like a home dog?    Well I don’t mind home dogs when they have one of the top defenses in the league!   Bears are still a top 3 sack defense and top 10 in yards even after that stinker they had in Miami this week.   Miami is the worst in sack defense in 1.2 per game.    from a net yards per game perspective, Chicago has new England by 11 yards.   Now I know Tom Brady has acquired more weapons in Josh Gordan and Julian Edelman is back but I don’t think that will make up for the fact that Chicago is coming off a loss and ready to capitalize.   This game is going to depend on free saftey Adrian Amos over the top of Gronk as well as a pass Rush allowing less than 2.5 seconds for Brady to throw.   I also think you would need to put a spy on James white with Danny Trevathan.    If that turns out the bears win this one outright.
Chicago +3.5
Denver vs Arizona +1 O/U 42
Well this is an ugly game.   Looking at how bad these offenses are you would think to bet the under for sure.    When you look at how bad these defenses are you would think to bet the over.  Both defenses are actually in the bottom 7 when it comes to total yards with Denver giving up 402 and Arizona giving up 394 .   One thing that is missing from these stats that we found for this Handicap is strength of schedule.     Both teams have played very good offenses.   The Cardinals have played the Rams, the Seahawks, the Redskins and the Vikings while the Broncos have played the Seahawks, the Ravens, the Chiefs and the Rams.    Both teams opponents have averaged 6.1 yards per play on offense which is well above the average.   That is a key to this handicap.  The defenses are actually better than they have shown.   The other key to this handicap is that both teams have very banged up offensive lines.   The only way this game goes over is if these QBs throw a bunch of pick 6s or turn the ball over and give up field position.
Under 42
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Miami +3
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Teasers
Carolina +11 and Saints +8