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Nebraska vs Indiana -6.5 O/U 49
Ok, riding Indiana has been quite fun this year. So was hitting their season win total over 5.5, but now I have to unfortunately look the other way. It is true that Indiana is 6-0 and 5-1 ATS, but does that warrant them being a 6.5 point favorite against a 5-1 Nebraska team that is 4-1-1 ATS? I think not. Indiana may be 6-0, but they have played nobody. Not even a team ranked in the top 66 from that standpoint. Nebraska at least had to pay a solid Illinois team who they lost to in overtime, and they had beaten a good Colorado team by margin along with beating a better than average Rutgers team before they got injuries. Now both teams are coming off of the bye, so many might assume that is equal advantage for both, but I think that it hurts the team that is undefeated and was humming just fine before they were forced into the break. Indiana has the better metrics on offense this year, but Nebraska believe it or not has the better defense ranking 10th in EPA over Indiana at 18th. The Hoosiers are high and mighty right now, but they haven’t at all been tested, and I think that this is very important to see. I know that Curt Cignetti wins, and he has proven it at James Madison along with a good start to the year, but I also know that Matt Rhule wins. Don’t believe me? Just google him.
Nebraska +6.5 – 2.5 stars
Miami vs Louisville +5 O/U 61
This might be a great game to watch on Saturday. Looking at this spread and the history between these two teams, we are going to look at the home dog right? WRONG! It is true that Miami had to come up with almost impossible comebacks to win their last two games against Virginia Tech and Cal. What is not being talked about enough is that they have the top athletes to do these things, and if this team starts well, they can keep up or pretty much beat anybody in college football. Well Louisville isn’t exactly a top team. Louisville is a solid team this year, and I have them ranked at 24th in my power ratings, but Miami is a top 7 team, and should be able to get margin off of most teams. When Louisville actually had some competition this year, they failed. A loss at Notre Dame by seven points, and a loss at home vs SMU by also seven. The issue with the Cardinal is that their passing game. This team only ranks 54th in success rate to Miami at 5th. Louisville’s biggest problem is stopping the pass ranking 67th in opponent passing EPA and 74th in opponent QBR. Miami doesn’t have a bunch of weaknesses minus Cam Ward throwing a few untimely interceptions. Tyler Shough however can also be careless with the ball. He seems to not step up in the big games. I have Miami by about 8 points on the road here. We need to thank Virginia Tech and Cal for this spread. Lay the small road chalk.
Miami -5 – 2.5 stars
