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Michigan vs Michigan State -4 O/U 50
I have been looking forward to this game for a long time now and it is nice to see both teams facing off at 7-0. Who would have thought? You know the wolverines are good when people are not chirping about how bad Jim Harbaugh is this year. I have to think that some of his adversaries are waiting for that big Ohio State game. At the same time, Michigan State under coach Mel Tucker has been a huge surprise this year and I am still baffled on how good of a head coach he has become on such a short duration of time. Now even with Michigan’s great success, does this warrant them being a 4.5 point road favorite against their little bro? Not likely by that much. Especially when you look at the Metrics. Both team are great at running the ball at about 5.4 yards per rush but Michigan State defends the rush a bit better allowing only 3.27 yards per rush to Michigan’s 3.56. Michigan State has the edge passing the ball at 9.2 yards per attempt to Michigan’s 8.0 but the Wolverines have the advantage defending the pass ranking 33rd in success rate to Sparty’s 65th. Michigan State also has the better sack rate that Michigan ranking 29th to Michigan’s 91st. Michigan however has the better offensive line ranking number 2 in opponent stuff rate and they also have a better EPA margin ranking 12th over Michigan State’s 22nd. I know I through a lot at you here but in summary you should be able to tell that this spread should not be past the key number of 3. My power ratings have Michigan winning this game by 2 points.
Michigan State +4 – 3 stars and sprinkle
Texas vs Baylor -2.5 O/U 61.5
This line is kinda like the Clemson vs Pittsburgh line last week except that Texas doesn’t have the recent history that Clemson has. Without looking at the numbers, one would think that this is an offense vs defense game but Baylor actually shows better in both the rushing and passing categories at 6.1 rushing yards per attempt to Texas’s 5.6, and Baylor averages 9.1 yards per pass to Texas’s 9. It’s not even close on defense and Baylor ranks 20th in EPA margin to Texas ranking 77th. Baylor has a net 1.6 yard per play advantage over the Long horns as well. Now Texas has the tougher strength of schedule but that is due to mainly the Arkansas and Oklahoma matchups that haven’t aged all that well. Who has Texas beaten? Louisiana? TCU? Baylor has wins vs Iowa State, BYU, and West Virginia which I think is better. Baylor is the play.
Baylor -2.5 – 2.5 stars
Penn State vs Ohio State -19 O/U 61
This is a massive spread for the Big 10. Penn State very well might be the second best team in this conference and they are 18.5 point dogs? That’s brutal. The question for me is what would this spread look like before last week’s games? Well I’ll tell you. It was Ohio State -11.5. This is a massive 7 point adjustment and I think it is too much. Now Ohio State certainly has the metrics and they also have a massive 2.4 net yard per play advantage but strength of schedule I think plays a massive role here. Penn State had to play Wisconsin, Iowa, a pretty good Auburn team while Ohio State’s toughest game was a home loss vs Oregon and maybe Minnesota ranks 2nd. I think if there is an advantage for Penn State, it is on the defensive side of the ball. The Nittany Lions rank 33rd in stuff rate while Ohio State ranks 87th. Penn State also ranks 3rd in passing play success rate to Ohio State ranking 73rd. This means that Sean Clifford will have to move the ball to his big receivers through the air. I think that he has that in him enough to at least cover this thing. My Power number is Ohio State -14.75 giving them 4 points for home field advantage. I will take Penn State first half as usual and Ohio State 2nd half but I also lean to the under.
Penn State 1st half +10.5 – 1.5 star premium and Ohio State 2nd half (only if they are winning by 10 or less) – 1.5 stars.
