College Football Week 10
Texas A&M vs Auburn -6 O/U 49
Well I am going to go back to the well on this one. I can’t really prepare numbers on this one because as you know the Aggies have played Alabama and Clemson while the Tigers toughest game was home vs LSU. Their Washington win isn’t looking too good anymore either. Auburn has a problem this year and that is their offensive line. Their terrible line is the reason that they lost to Tennessee and if they can’t get Stidham going then they can’t win. Texas A&M ranks 21st in the country in sacks per game. I think this will make it a long day for Auburn. I have this game Auburn -1 in the Power Ratings. I also kinda like the under here at 49 because both teams average less than 24 points vs conference opponents and have good defenses.
Texas A&M +6 ML sprinkle and under 49
FAU vs FIU -3.5
So I was high on Florida Atlantic coming in but I think I may have jumped the gun a bit thinking their defense was going to get much better and I also thought that Chris Robinson can replace Jason Driskel. Since last year the Owls have dropped 1 yard per play from 6.8 to 5.8 on offense and also lost .8 yards per play on defense now giving up 6 per play. They lost too much offensive production and it shows. The Golden Panthers on the other hand are the Florida Atlantic of last year. They are 6-1 ATS this year and continue to be underrated. They are averaging 6.4 yards per play and and giving up 5.4 of defense. Their QB James Morgan has a 166 passer rating at 65% this year. Chris Robinson of Florida Atlantic is only at 120. I think this spread is a little light and it is only because what people remember that FAU did last year. The owls are last at 1-7 ATS.
FIU -3.5
Stanford vs Washington -9.5
What the hell happened to this Top 10 Preseason ranked teams? No clue but one thing that I do know is that Jake Browning is kinda in the hot seat. KJ Costello on the other hand when allowed to throw the ball has completed 67% of his passes for a 156 rating. Browning is 12-8 TD to interception ratio and Costello is 17-6. Both teams are around 6 yards per play on offense and now I know that Washington shows a better defense than Stanford but look who they have played? An offensively challenged Auburn, A Utah team early in the year, Oregon and no other ranked teams. Stanford just went through a gauntlet of tough teams and came out ok. Stanford is a marginal 4-4 ATS but Washington is 2-7. Lastly it looks like Myles Gaskin of the Huskies may miss this game and so will a stud O lineman in Trey Adams. Stanford has beaten Washington 2 of the last 3 years. This game should be closer than 9.5 points
Stanford +9.5
Syracuse vs Wake Forest +5 O/U 75
Well this looks like a huge over under right. Well it should be because both of these teams are top 6 in plays per game and both play extremely fast. The truth is though that this number is still too low and I will explain why. When 2 fast teams play against each other it is more of a multiplication affect on the pace rather than an average. For example, if both of these teams play at 120% the speed of the average team the game does not end at 120% more plays. It ends at 144% which means that the speed of these teams will feed off of each other making 20% more plays per game. Both teams score a lot of points with Syracuse at 44 and Wake at 34. Both these teams have defensive ranking in the 100s. I have this game Syracuse winning 44-35.
Over 75
Quick Hitters
Navy vs Cinci under 50. The Bearcats are amazing against the run allowing 3.4 yards per play. This should be enough to stop the triple option and shut Navy down. I see a lot of running this game because we know Navy can’t pass and Cinci runs the ball 62% of the time.
Alabama first have cover: Should be around 7.5. They are now 8-0 so its an auto bet.
Utah vs ASU Under 56 – This is a huge game for Utah to take full control of the Pac 12 south. ASU in a let down spot. Both teams are running teams with very good defenses against the run.
Big Games
Alabama vs LSU +14.5 O/U 54. Can LSU live up to the Hype? Will this be the first time we see Tungaviola in the 4th Quarter? The defensive numbers say under but the offensive numbers say over. Maybe its best to take a first half under and a second half over?
West Virginia vs Texas -2 – Texas is now out of the playoffs and should be flat this week but its hard to bet against Tom Herman at home. Lean is West Virginia here. They are the closest team to Oklahoma in the Big 12
Notre Dame vs Northwestern +9.5 – Notre Dame could be kinda flat and happy here. They may underestimate the Northwestern gritty team. The number is about right but which Northwestern team shows up here? The one that lost to Akron and almost to Rutgers or the one that beat Purdue, Wisconsin and almost Michigan?
Georgia vs Kentucky +9.5 – You can make an argument both ways here. If Georgia scores first bet them live, if Kentucky scores first bet them.
Premium Plays
Penn State vs Michigan
Miami Ohio vs Buffalo
Minnesota vs Illinois
Syracuse vs Wake Forest
The Sharp side of the force! Sharp money is on:
Arizona hosting Colorado -3
Baylor +7.5 vs Oklahoma State
Iowa State -14.5 at Kansas
Airforce +7 at Army
Nebraska +21.5 to +17.5 at Ohio State
Ole Miss +1 vs South Carolina – I don’t understand that one as much
Texas State +7 to +5.5 at Georgia State
Minnesota -9.5 at Illinois
Kansas State +8 at TCU
Tulane from +8 to +7 at South Florida – Scary one
Boston College from -1 to -2 at Va Tech
San Diego State -10.5 at New Mexico – we saw what Fresno State did to New Mexico
Dual Action on Ohio at Western Michigan from PK to -3
Dual Action on Utah State vs Hawaii 97% of money on Utah State
Sharp Totals
Ohio vs Western Michigan under 64.5 a 72% difference
Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee State under 53 a 58% difference
Texas San Antonio vs Arkansas State under 63.5
Georgia vs Kentucky under 44 – That says something about the spread
UTEP vs Rice over 45.5
Dual Action on the Navy vs Cincinnati under 50
Iowa vs Purdue over 51.5
Boston College vs Virginia Tech over 57.5
Charlotte vs Tennessee under from 50 to 45.5 big move but no value
Utah vs ASU under 56 a 78% difference
Houston vs SMU under 71 a 51% difference but I don’t like it
UCLA vs Oregon over 55.5 to 58.5
Stanford vs Washington under 46.5
Cal vs Washington State under from 55 to 50
Utah State vs Hawaii under 70.5
NFL Week 9
Tampa Bay vs Carolina -6.5
Ok, lets try this fade Fitzmagic thing again. I know we got jobbed on this vs the Eagles, but I can’t trust him as a starter on the road. If you look at the numbers it may even favor Tampa bay a bit but I think it is because Fitzpatrick was so great the first few games. Carolina has improved their pass rush to 3 sacks per game the last 3 games. The Panthers also have a top 10 defense in points allowed at 21 while Tampa is worst in the league at 33. Now you look at the injury report and Tampa may have lost their corner back MJ Stewart and with Hargreaves and Conte out their backfield is very depleted. Vita Vea is also banged up as well. I like how Carolina’s offense has improved the last few games with Greg Olson back and I also like how DJ Moore is progressing. The key here that I like to look at is yards per point. Tampa bay needs 16.3 yards to score a point while Carolina only needs 14.1. On defense Tampa gives up a league worst 12.1 yards per point while Carolina is top 10 at 16.2. This is the main reason why Carolina ranks 4th in overall efficiency and Tampa ranks 29th.
Carolina -6.5
Atlanta vs Washington -2
Here is another story of a banged up shitty road team. Atlanta is 0-2 ATS as a road team while Washington is 3-1 at home. Atlanta lost Devonte Freeman this year and hasn’t been able to have that great run game that made them so good in the past. They are 3rd worst in the league at 83 yards per game while Adrian Peterson is back to his old ways hoisting the redkins to a 128 rushing yards per game which is top 8. Want to talk about defense? Washington is TOP 5 while the Falcons rank bottom 3 in the league. 2 ends of the spectrum here. Matt Ryan is a great passing QB at home and averages 360 yards per game at home but the key here is that he only averages 268 yards per game on the road. This game will only take a good game manager to win this one. Pound the rock, let your defense do what it does best and take home the W.
Redskins -2
Sand Diego vs Seattle -1.5 O/U 48
So these teams have been playing pretty good on offense lately and this is the reason for the higher total but there is reason to be skeptical here. The Chargers have played some very bad defenses in the Browns, Raiders, 49ers, Bills and Chiefs which helped boster their numbers. Seattle on the other hand has been very good on defense allowing a top 4 18 points per game and top 5 327 yards per game. The Chargers defense isn’t too shabby either allowing 23 points per game and 362 yards. Both of these teams have benefited greatly from the turnover margin. Seattle is number 1 in the NFL at plus 1.3 TO per game and Seattle is top 7 TO per game at .7. Both of these teams rank low in pace of play with the Chargers at number 30 in the league at 58 plays per game and Seattle number 25 at 61 plays per game. My Algorithm has this game the Seahawks 24 and the Chargers 20.
Seattle -1.5 and Under 48
Tennessee vs Dallas – Premium Play
Teaser: Seattle down to +4.5 with the Vikings down to +.5 – Lions traded their best WR Golden Tate. What message does that send to the team?
