Tulane vs Ohio State -35.5
Ok, we watched the TCU vs Ohio State game. The Buckeye’s are the second best team in football. We know Duane Haskins has a 194 QB rating. We know that they average 5.8 yards per run. But this handicap has nothing to do with stats or power ratings because if it did then +36 is the correct number. This game is all about spots and that is how you beat Vegas. You can’t do it on betting the Power teams against the little sisters of the poor alone. This is a perfect sandwich spot for Ohio State coming down from that Close TCU game and now looking ahead to Penn State. Ohio state got banged up last game and NEEDS to be healthy for their big game next week. Nick Bosa probably out this game. I doubt their starters will even play past the middle of the third quarter if the game is under hand. Tulane on the other hand played some tough teams in Wake Forest and UAB. They at least average 6.2 yards per play and give up 5.6. Ohio state on the other hand is giving up 5.2 yards per play and their D has some holes in it. I see Tulane scoring a bit in the 4th quarter and covering this thing.
Tulane +35.5
Clemson vs Georgia Tech +16.5
So if u watched the Georgia Southern game then you know that Clemson got used to the Triple Option by the second half of that game. Now that Clemson is facing another triple option team, it really sets up well for this handicap. Clemson lost some respect in the Market place and I am sure they are not too happy about it. They want their number 2 spot back and they are going to prove it this week against a weakened Georgia Tech team. I actually think that Georgia Southern may be better than Georgia Tech and they lost by 30. Clemson is still at top 10 team in Efficiency while Georgia Tech isn’t even top 50. I’ll take that Clemson 7.5 yards per play against that weak Geogia tech D.
Clemson -16.5 to 21
Kansas vs Baylor -6.5
Ok. We all loved how Kansas came out and started 2-0 in FBS Play. Party party party. Cinderella story right??? WROOOOOOOOOOONG. Kansas is now a PUBLIC DOG and this is exactly what we look for in the marketplace. Let’s face it. Kansas played beat Central Michigan and Rutgers. We forgot that they lost their first game to Nichols State. Baylor on the other hand is coming off a loss to a very tough and season Duke team. What people didn’t see in this game is that Baylor Outscored Duke 27-17 in the second half and equaled them in yards. Baylor averages 7.2 yards per play to Kansases 5.4. Baylor has every reason to try and kick some ass at Home this week.
Baylor -6.5
Michigan State vs Indiana +4.5
Here is another situation where you have to look at the pure power ratings over what the win loss record shows you. I suspect Indiana will be a Public Dog come saturday and I think it is smart to look at some numbers. MSU beat a very tough Utah State team who has been blowing the doors off teams. Utah State is currently a top 35 team in the power ratings. Michigan State also had a very tough and close loss against a very gritty AZ State team. Michigan State was leading by 13 until the 4th quareter and the clock hit 1:30AM Eastern time. In the mean time Indiana has been able to capitalize on tomato cans such as Florida International, Ball State and a very green Virginia Team. Most power ratings have Michigan State by 7 so we are taking a pissed off Sparty
Michigan State -4.5
Notre Dame vs Wake Forest +8 and O/U 57.5
So one thing that I did notice last week about Wake Forest is that this team has a ton of grit. They actually almost equalled Boston College’s yards on offense getting 512 yards to BC’s 524. Wake Forest is 4-1-1 at home last year against the spread last year at home and new QB Sam Hartmen is much better now than his season debut against Tulane. Now one thing we saw from Notre Dame is that they have failed to reach expectations. Notre Dame should have lost last week to Vanderbilt having 40 less total yards and if it wasn’t for the 3 turnover margin they would have lost. Notre Dame also didn’t show well vs a bad Ball state team the week before only winning by 8 points.
Wake forest +8 and ML sprinkle
Lets stay right here for a moment. I know that Notre Dame is more of a running team and plays great defense a bad offense and I circled them as an under team as you saw cash last week but this total is a bit too low playing a team that runs 102 plays per game!!!! Wake forest is the Fastest playing team in the NCAA and because of this Notre Dame will have plenty of chances to score. For as shitty as Notre Dame is they still average 5.1 yards a play while Wake Forest averages 5.8. Boston College is a running team as well and this total went way over last week.
Over 57.5
East Carolina vs South Florida – 23.5
Wow did South Florida escape a close one in Illinois. They had to score 18 in the 4th quarter to win this game. S Florida has been escaping close games for a while now. I think this time they may be caught a bit off guard here. East Carolina still plays a very fast game and South Florida always has trouble with that. East Carolina is absolutely better this year but their record won’t show it because last week’s game was cancelled. The Pirates lost their first week to an FCS school called North Carolina Arts and Technology but if you look at Sagarin’s ratings, they are a pretty decent FCS team. People are not giving East Carolina enough credit for beating North Carolina 41-19 because of the suspensions but this is the same North Carolina team that went to Cal and only lost by 7 points. Reid Herring threw for 290 yards and a TD this game. S florida can’t really stop the run to well allowing 5.3 yards per carry. The Pirates now have had almost 2 weeks to prepare for UNC and get revenge for the 61-31 loss from last year. S florida didn’t return much production since then ranking 125th. This is a difference S Florida team and when is it ever bad to fade Charlie Strong in these situations. S Florida should be 1-2 right now in my opinion and I think that East Carolina can win this outright.
E Carolina +23.5 for 3 units and 1 Unit +1400 on the money line is the play
Florida Atlantic vs UCF -14 – O/U 71 Premium Play
ASU vs Washington -18.5 Premium Play
Western Michigan vs Georgia State + 7.5 Premium Play
Eastern Michigan vs San Diego State – 11 Premium Play
Other Plays:
Florida -6 vs Tennessee. Power ratings have this at 8 and Tennessee is in full blown rebuild. Florida is still decent and owns Tennessee
louisville vs Virginia -5. Big fade on Louisville here. They should have lost to W Kentucky getting doubled in yards.
Florida -6
Penn State vs Illinois +27.5 – Huge look ahead spot for Penn State. Illinois may get their QB AJ Bush back this weekend. They circled this game and should keep it within 24 points. My power ratings has it at 23
Illinois +27.5 Now 28.5 in market place
Texas Tech +14.5 vs Ok State. Waiting for this line because of let down spot but I must admit Justice Hill Scares me. What a great name Justice Hill. How can he not be in the NFL. Guys, Go blame your parents right now for not naming you Justice Hill.
Big games
Stanford vs Oregon +2 – Same as my line.
Sharp money report:
FAU +13.5 vs UCF – 19% more money that tickets
Michigan from -18 to -19 vs SMU – Both Public and Sharp
Wake Forest +7.5 vs Notre Dame has 15% points difference
Iowa State +18.5 vs Akron has 27% points difference. Akron beat NU last week
Ohio +8.5 vs Cincinnati – 20% poinst difference
SMU +6.5 vs Navy – 30% points difference
Georgia Tech +17 vs Clemson – 20% points difference
FIU +26.5 vs Miami – 25% points difference
NC State -6.5 to -5.5 vs Marshall – 22% difference
New Mexico State -2.5 to -3.5 vs UTEP – 29% difference
Eastern Michigan +11 vs San Diego State – 35% difference
Totals:
Florida Atlantic vs UCF – over 67-75 – 22% points difference
Penn State vs Illinois – 57.5 to 60 – over – 20% points difference
Notre Dame vs Wake Forest 54.5 to 61 – over – 21% points difference
Akron vs Iowa state 50 to 45 – under – 40% points difference
BC vs Purdue – Over- 60 to 68 – Over – 20% points difference
Kent State vs Ole Miss – Over 71.5 to 77.5 39% point difference
Navy vs SMU – Under – 65 – 33% points difference
Louisville vs Virginia – Under – 54.5 – 42% Points difference – I like this one
Miami Oh vs Bowling Green – Over – 55 – 55% Points difference
Baylor vs Kansas – Under -61 to 57.5 – 27% point difference
Tulane vs Ohio State – Over – 64.5 to 66 – 26% points difference
Uconn vs Syracuse – Over – 72-76 – 31% point difference
TCU vs Texas – Under – 51.5 to 47.5 – 24% points difference
Army vs Oklahoma – Under 63.5 – 35% point difference – Kinda like this one
LA Tech vs LSU – Under 51 to 48 – 40% points difference
UTEP vs New Mexica state – Under – 51 to 48.5 – 45% points difference
Wisconsin vs Iowa – Over 42 to 43.5 – 30% points difference
Air Force vs Utah State – Under – 64 – 45% point difference
NFL Week 4
New Orleans Vs Atlanta -3
Atlanta is a little banged up but they did have a pretty impressive performance against Carolina. On the other hand people are really questioning the Saints for their game vs Tampa and Cleveland. Well I am forgiving them for this. Week 1 nobody so Fitzmagic coming in like this and week 2 was a look ahead spot vs Cleveland. Even after a tough start the saints are still top 5 in passing this year and a solid 6.2 yards per play. The saints may have beaten the Bucs week one if they had 1 extra quarter as well. I like Breese’s comeback abilities and the WR matchups vs an injured secondary. I also like fading Steve Sarkesian.
Saints +3
New England vs Detroit +7
Ok, this one makes sense to me but fair warning is that making sense doesn’t seem to go right in the NFL. This is my best play. Lions coach Matt patricia is off to a terrible start as we all saw but he was able to cover the spread last week with Garbage TD time Matt Stafford. Now they are coming home and despate for a win and they face the Patriots. Matt Patricia has been with the Patriots for 14 years as a d coordinator and I do not think that anybody knows this Patriot team more than him. The Lions have been struggeling a bit and I blame lots of this to no running game but at the same time New England is at the bottom half of the NFL against the run. The Lions do give up a lot on the ground 5.8 yards per run a second worst in the NFL but the Patriots are not a good rushing team. The Pats are a passing team and the Lions are 3rd in the league at 8 total QB sacks As bad as the Lions are they still average 5.5 yards per play to the Patriots 5.2. Now I know we have been burned over the years betting against the Patriots but something is missing on this team and I think Matt Patricia is smart enought to have a safety over Gronk as well as even if the Patriots win here I do not see Bill Belichek running up the score against his 14 year friend and Defensive coordinator.
Lions +7 and ML Spinkle
