College Football Week 9
Purdue vs Michigan State -2
Well since Purdue beat Ohio State and Michigan State lost to Michigan that means that Purdue should easily win this game right? Wrooooooong. What was this line before last week? -6? -7? This is the perfect opportunity to take advantage of the huge let down spots that happen. Has Purdue improved since starting out 0-3? Absolutley they have but they are now playing a well coached and pissed off Michigan State team who just had a run of Northwestern, Penn State and Michigan. You can throw out the stats in my opinion because Michigan State has played a harder schedule. Mark Dantonio also isn’t going to let Rondale Moore whip his ass like Greg Schiano did last week. He will be keying in on this talent. A key to this game for me is that Purdue may have lost their defensive tackle and run stopper Lorenzo Neal for this game. If this is the case then LJ Scott may have a field day against this defense… Michigan State runs the ball, controls the game and wins by 6 points
Michigan State -2
Iowa vs Penn State -6.5
Well this is a game that I think will take some people by surprise here. The tail of 2 teams. One is on a downward trend and one has caught momentum. Iowa is a team that knows that they are better than what they showed at the end of that game vs Wisconsin. Iowa has been blowing out their opponents by an average of 16.5 points and they yet to play some of the tomato cans that Penn State was fortunate enough to play. This is the only reason that Penn state has a slight net yards per play advantage of +.3. The key to this game is Iowas stout defense. The Hawkeyes rank 3rd in the nation in yards per game and 8 in yards per play. Penn State’s defense has been quite average and over the last 3 game they have given up 25 points per game vs conference opponents while Iowa is at 19. Now my power ratings has Penn State by about 6 points but after you factor in the momentum for Iowa, the revenge spot for Iowa because they had Penn State dead nuts last year at home and lost at the very last second, and the fact that Penn State is looking ahead to their @Michigan game the next week, I have this game more of a 2-3 point spread in favor of Penn state. I also can’t trust James Franklin in this spot. The play here is
Iowa +6.5 and ML Sprinkle
FIU vs Western Kentucky +4
FIU is a really sneaky good under the radar team this year. They are 5-1 ATS and 1-0 as an away favorite! What I love about this team is that they are pretty well rounded. Good at rushing and passing and do pretty well against the pass. FIU’s only weakness is against the run and from a matchup and metrics standpoint that bode’s well against Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers only average 3.5 yards per run and they are a passing team. The problem is that their QB Drew Eckels is banged up and questionable for this game. FIU averages .7 net yards per play better than Western Kentucky. Lastly, i have FIU about 10 points better in the power ratings
FIU -4 big
Texas A & M vs Miss State +3
Here is another situation where I favor the metrics and the matchups over the power ratings…. I actually have the Aggies about a 2 point dog here via power ratings but we must dig deep into this handicap. Texas A&M is coming off of a bye week which i really like here. Say what you want about Jimbo Fisher but if you give him a bye week, he can certainly prepare a team to face the read option. Now if this isn’t enough for you then look past Mississippi State’s cake non conference schedule. Mississippi State has the WORST scoring offense vs conference opponents and they have had yet to play Alabama. They average 9.8 points per game and 4.3 yards per play vs the SEC while the Aggies average 23 points and 5.5 yards per play vs their rivals. This should be a very simple play
Texas Tech +3 and Sprinkle that shit!
Baylor vs West Virginia -13.5 O/U is 63
Do I even have to cover this? I mean West Virginia had that loss and then a bye week? Were you listening to our podcast last week when Oklahoma was in this position? The mountaineers are in a total get up spot here after losing to Iowa State a few weeks back and there is no better defense than to do it against as the Baylor Bears. Baylor gives up 6.3 yards per play and 31 points per game. Now the bears are playing a top 6 team in offensive efficiency who scores 37 points per game and 7 yards per play. Baylor is also one of those fast playing teams who can obviously lose fast. They are in the top 5 at 84 plays per game. Now West Virginia’s defense looks like it is great but in all actuality when they play good teams they get scored upon as well. Baylor can put up some points averaging 31 PPG and 6 yards per play. I can see this game being a 55-30 type game. I like West Virginia to cover this spread but I like the over even more.
West Virginia -13.5 and Over 63 all the way to 70
Quick Hitters:
NC State vs Syracuse over 61.5 – Syracuse plays very fast and NC State throws the ball. NC State will look to score points after last weeks embarrassment at Clemson
Florida vs Georgia under 51.5 – This game has went under the last 3 years. 2 running teams with great defenses. Inconsistent O lines and QB play. Both in bottom 20% in plays per game. Looks like some rain and wind
Premium Plays:
Wisconsin vs Northwestern – Premium
Clemson vs FSU – Premium
Illinois vs Maryland – Premium
Washington State vs Stanford – 3.5 – The Letdown spot is already factored into this game.
The Sharp Action Report:
FAU hosting Louisiana Tech -3.5
Wyoming at Colorado State +2 39% difference
Army +2 at eastern Michigan. I like it. look what they did to Buffalo
Virginia -8.5 hosting UNC – Don’t like that one
Kansas +13.5 hosting TCU
ASU +7 at USC
Oklahoma -22 to -24.5 hosting K state 43% difference – BRUTAL
Houston -7 Hosting USF
SMU + 9 hosting Cincinnati – I disagree
Cal +11.5 hosting Washington – 36% difference
Airforce +10 to +9.5 hosting Boise State
Dual Action on FIU at Western Kentucky
Sharp Totals:
Miami vs Boston College Under from 58-49 wow – Dual action on that but still a 30% difference
Wyoming vs Colorado State under from 49-46
Dual Action on Central MIchigan vs Arkon under to 45
Umass vs Conneticut under from 71-70. This was up to 74 at on early point. Looks like rain and wind did this one in
Purdue vs Michigan State over 50.5 – Yuck
TCU vs Kansas over 48.5 a 52% difference
Iowa vs Penn State under from 54 to 51.5
Dual Action on the Cincinnati vs SMU under from 54.5 to 50.5
UNLV vs San Jose State Under 59.5 – Um, UNLV gave up 50 to New Mexico
Arkansas State vs Louisiana Lafayette Dual Action on over 65 to 70
Notre Dame vs Navy over 54.5 – 57% difference
San Diego State vs Nevada Dual Action on under from 49 to 47.5
Hawaii vs Fresno State over 59.5
NFL Week 8 Plays
Baltimore vs Carolina +1
Well here is a matchup of 2 teams that had a very strange week 7. Baltimore missed an extra point to tie the game at the end and Carolina was down by 17 in the 4th quarter and won outright. I like the bounce back spot when it comes to the Ravens. Baltimore is 2-0 ATS after a loss while Carolina is 0-3 ATS after a win. Baltimore has the best team defense in the league allowing only 280 yards per game while their offense also ranks better than Carolina at 387 yards per game for the Ravens to 367 for the Panthers. The wrong team is favored year and I have Baltimore by 3 points
Baltimore -1
New Orleans vs Minnesota -1
If you look at these 2 team you might say they are both in the top 5 or so in the NFL. Being that this game is in Minnesota you would also say that they should have the advantage. There are 2 things that i focussed on for this handicap. 1. Look at the injury report for the Vikings. It is looking like they lost their best corner in Xavier Rhodes and linebacker Anthony Barr. This does not bode well for them facing that passing attack of the Saints. 2. This is still a fresh revenge spot for Drew Breese and the Saints from last year’s absolute break down in the playoffs allowing Sephon Diggs to score that last second long touchdown. This game is played in a dome and the Saints are a dome team. The only think that may make you hesitate here is that the Vikings get back Everson Griffen from his mental breakdown but one must question if he will be in game shape.
New Orleans +1 or PK
San Francisco vs Arizona -1
I know what your thinking. Please tell me your not playing this ugly disgusting putrid game right? Yeah. I am sorry. I wish that I can say that we are not playing this game but when situations happen you have to go with what you know. Cardinals Offensive Coordinator Mike McCoy was fired this week due to having the worst offense in the league. Is that his fault? Well definitely not completely. GM Steve Keim didn’t exactly set this team up for success by not fixing their offensive line woes. Losing some key players like John Brown and the Honey badger didn’t exactly help things either. Ok, back to my point. Whenever there is a coach or coordinator fired it automatically sparks up the team for their next game due to the fact that the players want to prove that it wasn’t them who sucked so far during this season. It is actually more of a psychological handicap than anything else. This is very similar to when you have a coworker that gets fired, all of a sudden you start kicking ass at your job. I like to call it, the when shit hits the fan syndrome. To be honest with you, this game should be around a pickem anyways and the Cardinals may bet back a few O lineman in Justin Pugh and Mike Lupati
Cardinals -1
Teaser:
Denver to +16 with Cleveland to +14 – Denver played the Chiefs well last game and have extra time to prepare. Cleveland played the Steelers well enough last game and Baker Mayfield is a second half kind of QB. Plus that Steelers vs Cincinnati game anyone that knows football saw them get away with offensive pass interference on that last Antonio Brown TD.
@eddiehaswinners
Baylor vs West Virginia – 14
Texas Tech vs Iowa State O/U 56
Tennessee vs South Carolina -7.5
