College Football Week 7 Picks:
Line’s are getting very sharp now so it is Quality over Quantity!
Tennessee vs Auburn – 17 –
Well if you look at why Mississippi State beat this Auburn team it had a lot more to due than the passing game. Nick Fitzgerald had 195 yards rushing the ball. He wasn’t property contained and was able to take off running. Fitzgerald was also Motivated by breaking Tim Tebow’s rushing record. I think that Tennessee’s offense is much different than the Bulldogs and will be much easier to Handle. The Vols defense is one of the worst in the SEC giving up 6.5 yards per play to conference opponents while Auburn is at 4.88. Auburn also averages 5.4 yards per play even with Jerrod Stidham’s regression at Quarterback and O line. I am going to throw this Miss State game out and Take the
Tigers -17
UCF vs Memphis – +4.5
When was the last time UCF didn’t outscore their opponent by a Touchdown? December of 2016!!!! How can you not lay les than a TD against an AAC opponent with this team? Memphis hasn’t even played anybody with a pulse yet. Their schedule ranks a LOWEST in FBS 157th on Sagarin. This means that many FCS teams have already had a harder schedule than them. Central Florida also had a pretty easy road but at last they played Pittsburgh and Florida Atlantic. The key here for me is that Memphis has a new quarterback this year in Brady White who lost to Navy and Tulane and who hasn’t even faced a top 85 team while McKenzy Milton beat teams like Auburn last year and FAU and PItt this year. Pure Power Ratings has this game at UCF by 8. Laying the road points…..
UCF -4.5
Nebraska vs Northwestern – 6.5
I really do not get this line move. It went from +9 to +4 or 5 in many books. I took it at -6.5 thinking it was done. The badgers are having a down year and were favored by 18 to this team a few days ago. I do not think the Badgers are 14 points better than Northwestern. Most of this was due to the let down spot for Northwestern as well as the yards put up against the Badgers. What you do not see is that most of Nebraska’s yards came in Garbage time second half when Wisco was looking to Michigan and put in 2nd and third string on defense. I am handicapping this game by looking at what Northwestern has done since its hiccup against Duke and Akron. They beat Michigan State and should have beaten Michigan at home. They are number 8 in total defense at 424 yards per game vs Conference opponents while Nebraska is worse than Illinois and Rutgers at 513 total yards. Most of Nebraska’s yards are in garbage time so it is very hard to quantify. Instead for this game I like to look at efficiency which looks at things like Strength of schedule, Net points per drive, Possession success rates and with the FEI ratings Northwestern is a 27 and Nebraska is a 79. Lastly Northwestern is 0-3 at home and is looking for a good victory for their fans.
Northwestern -6.5 and Over 59.5
Air Force vs San Diego State -10.5
This game is really all about the running game metrics to me. Both teams are good at running the ball but not passing, and both teams are great against the run too. So this says under right? Well its down to 45.5 and i still lean under but I feel a little better about the spread here. It’s a good rule of thumb to take the dog when the spread is 20% or greater compared with the total. Both of these teams are kinda in let down spots after their big wins the week before with Utah State having a slightly harder schedule. I like the fact that Airforce averages 13 yards per point to San Diego State’s 16.5. I also like how Airforce decided to switch to their better QB Donald Hammond III. Power ratings say this should be about a 7 point spread. Now I know Rocky long is good against the Triple Option but this is the first option team the kids will see this year. Oh, and Airforce did beat this team at home by 4 points last year. I think this goes a lot like the Eastern Michigan vs San Diego State game and I will take the points.
San Diego State +10.5
Houston vs East Carolina O/U 67.5
Man I love the way Houston plays offense this year. D’Eriq King is an athlete and they average 50 points per game and 7.5 yards per play. E Carolina plays fast at 84 plays per game. That’s top 7. Being at home they should be able to put up some points against a shaky Houston defense that allows 5.5 yards per play and 30 points per game. East Carolina also averages 33 points per game at home. Houston is also top 40 in plays per game. I see this score Houston 48 – 30 worst case.
Houston over 67.5
Texas A&M vs South Carolina – Premium Equal in Net yards per play at 5.8. South Carolina has an injury list and its bad. Schedule really says it all here.
Louisville vs Boston College – Premium
Marshall vs Old Dominion – Premium
Florida vs Vanderbilt – Premium
Quick Hitters
Wisconsin vs Michigan Over 47.5 but also leaning Michigan -8 – Wisconsin gives up 6 yards per play and haven’t played much yet… Michigan averages 6.5 yards per play and 38 points per game.
Arizona vs Utah under 52 points – Kalil Tate doesn’t run anymore. Utah holds opponents to 17.2 points per game and 4.45 yards and had a way harder schedule, The under is 5-1 this year for AZ
Sharp Line Movement: I only cover actual sharp line movement due to sharp betting. Must be a 20% difference between tickets and Money for sides, 30% for totals and will cover dual action
Arkansas State was sharp on Tuesday but they lost at 10.5
Tennessee down to 15.5 from 18 vs Auburn (disagree)
Maryland vs Rutgers from -23 to -25.5
Toledo -1 vs Eastern Michigan 41% difference
Buffalo -9 to -12 hosting Akron
Nebraska +9 to +4 at Northwestern – Huge overkill here to me
K State from +7.5 to +6.5 hosting Oklahoma State
Kent State +12.5 to +11 at Miami Ohio
Central Michigan from pick to -5 hosting Ball State
Old dominion hosting Marshall +4.5 to +3.5 large on at 31% difference
Utah State -23.5 to -27.5 hosting UNLV dual action on this and 91% of money on Utah State
UCLA +7.5 at Cal with a 41% difference
Wyoming +19.5 to +18.5 hosting Fresno
Nevada +19.5 to +17 hosting Boise State
Totals
Texas State vs Georgia Southern Under to 49 from 51
Airforce vs San Diego State under to 43.5 from 44, 43% difference
Akron vs Buffalo under to 53.5 from 57
UAB vs Rice over 52.5
Texas A & M over 52 – kinda like that one
Baylor vs Texas over from 59-60 Dual Action
Army vs San Jose State under from 54 to 52.5 51% difference
Purdue vs Illinois over 56 to 62 Large Move
UCF vs Memphis over 77 to 81 no surprises dual action
Georgia vs LSU under from 51 to 50.5
Louisiana Monroe vs Coastal Carolina under 66.5 to 65.5
Hawaii vs BYU under 56
Wisconsin vs Michigan under 47.5 from 48 (i disagree with that)
Boise State vs Nevada Dual action over 58.5 to 60.5
NFL Plays:
Niners vs Packers -9.5
This situational handicap will work well against a 49ers team without a real quarterback. Packers over doubled the lions yards last game and still lost due to 3 fumbles and 4 missed field goals. The Packers defense is improving only giving up 22.8 points per game and number 4 in yards at 313. The 49ers are on the second quarterback who likes to throw the picks that has a less than 1-1 TD to interception Ratio. That’s pretty bad! Plus the Niners have 3 injured offensive lineman who are questionable and now on their 3rd running back Alford Morris. Green bay should be getting some guys back from injury such as Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb. The Packers should be in beast mode right now trying to wrong the game from last week and once again go above .500
Packers -9.5
Chicago vs Miami +3.5
Looking at Miami’s injuries you have to be concerned for this team. They recently lost Center Daniel Kilgore and now Laremy Tunsil is questionable at Tackle. Top wide-out Parker is Highly questionable as well. The Bears on the other hand are coming off a Bye and feeling pretty good after that Tampa game. They are pretty healthy and ready to ride on that confidence that was won with 6 TDS from Trubisky. Chicago is second on defense allowing only 294 yards per game with Miami at 22nd at 382. Chicago is number 1 in sacks against a beat up Miami o line. Lastly, Miami is a dismal 30th in total offense? Miami has been exposed the last few weeks and will again at home vs the hungry Bears.
Bears -3.5 and will probably hit the first half as well
Teasers:
Vikings to -4.5 vs Cardinals with the Broncos to +13 vs Rams
Jets to +3.5 vs colts with the Raiders to +9 vs the Seahawks in london
