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Colts at Texans
Pick: Ind +3.5
Going to take the Colts to cover here tonight. I don’t know if they win straight up but several things going for them it looks and feels like
IND 10-1-1 ATS last 12 vs teams with a winning record
IND 6-0 ATS last 6 vs AFC South
IND 6-0-1 ATS last 7 in Houston
HOU 2-8 ATS against teams with a winning record
Road team 8-2-2 ATS last 12 meetings
Colts seem to come out flat vs teams they are favored against and should beat and appear to get up for division games and games where they are not favored to win. Indianapolis is 3-0 vs the AFC South this season including a win over Houston. That win followed the big Sunday night win at KC. The Colts seem to get up for these games. They also seem to have already hit their 3-4 game lull that good teams often experience at some point in the season.
Jacoby Brissett is 4-0 in his career against Houston. He has a 7/0 TD/INT and a 107.2 rating. He went 26 for 39, 326 yds 4 TD in the first meeting this season.
The Colts offensive line manhandled Jacksonville on run plays in Wk 11. Houston is allowing 5.8 ypc in their last 3 games. They are allowing 5 ypc overall on the season. Also, the Texans are #29 in pass defense this season. They are #25 in total defense. T.Y. Hilton is now probable to play. Hilton has over 1,500 receiving yards in 15 career games vs Houston. The Colts are without Marlon Mack but appear to have sufficient options at back in Wilkins (6.1 ypc) and Williams (7.8 ypc). Baltimore ran for 256 yards, 6.9 ypc last weekvs the Texans.
DeShaun Watson has been sacked 13 times in his last 4 games including 6 times last week. Watson is 1-2 career vs the Colts. He has 4/3 TD/INT and the Colts have sacked him 15 times in that span.
Houston is 1-3 ATS against the closing line this season.
