Day 1 of bowl season has arrived! Hope everyone is excited as I am to crush these bowls and make some money. Due to keep in mind throughout the 3 weeks, bowl season can bring the unexpected more than other times of the year in my opinion. Guys opting out to enter the transfer portal, head to the NFL, or are just flat out not feeling it. You will see teams bring more emotion that they would to the CFP, then you will see teams be completely disinterested and have moved onto next season. Our job is to find the teams that want to play, bring the extra effort and more importantly: want to win!
I will update this column every day there is a bowl keeping track of our record and providing free plays on how I’m executing each and every bowl game! Good luck to us and everyone participating in bowl season!
We have 6 bowls on tap for opening day, with the additional Celebration Bowl. Let’s begin!
11:00am ET- Ohio vs Georgia Southern: After a great 2022 for Clay Helton’s Ga Southern squad, they were barely bowl eligible winning only 6 games in 2023. Getting win #6 back in the middle of October, then losing 4 straight to end the season. They heavily rely on their passing game with an air raid type scheme, which is unfortunate for them having to face a Bobcat passing defense that shined in 2023. Only giving up 200+ yards twice in 12 games, with an average of 168 yards per game. With Davis Brin so interception prone, it could be a long day for the Eagles. I am all over Ohio in the Myrtle Beach Bowl to kick off bowl season!
Plays: Ohio +2.5 (FD: -105) to win 1.25u, Ohio ML (+120) risk 0.5u
2:15pm ET- ULL vs Jacksonville St: It’s Rich Rods JVST bowl debut, but as usual his squad can RUN and score quickly but play no defense. An even game in my opinion, complete stay away for me. Pass…
3:30pm ET- Miami OH vs App St: Facing defenses in the Sunbelt like Georgia Southern, Georgia St, ULM, CCU, ODU, Southern Miss just to name a few is one thing. Facing a physical, hard hitting Chuck Martin defense is another. #1 defense in the country in fumble recoveries. Yes, I know they play in the MAC, but in case y’all haven’t noticed. The MAC was much better this season, as a whole beating teams outside of their conference even into the power 5. Look, it’s not 2019, 2020, 2021 where we were accustomed to these tremendous App St squads. Speed, speed, and more speed. The 2023 version just does not have the same quality of players as the old ones. App St will score their points come day 1 of bowl season, but I don’t believe it will be enough to take down the RedHawks. Miami OH is good in all three phases, with special teams being a high priority for them. They’re getting 6.5 points, but I don’t believe we will need them. They will win this game outright! Take Miami OH with the points as well as the money-line!
Plays: Miami OH +6.5 (-110) to win 1u, Miami OH ML (+200) risk 0.35u=0.7u
5:45pm ET- NMSU vs Fresno St: Complete stay away for me. Fresno HC will miss the game for health reasons, also a Bulldog team that was completely stagnant down the stretch. Pavia will play for the Aggies who were good as gold down the stretch, but their pass defense got picked apart at times in 2023, and what I believe will keep Fresno in this game. NMSU favorites in a bowl game, I think us just outrageous no matter who they are facing, nonetheless the 2022 Mountain West champs. My biggest concern is Jerry Kill’s SU record in bowl games at 1-5, with last season year #1 at NMSU being his first bowl win, as well as the Aggies second bowl win since 1960. Will the buzz where off this year? Interesting note, it’s the New Mexico Bowl, meaning a home game for NMSU. Pools, take NMSU. Pass.
7:30pm ET- UCLA vs Boise St: Strength of schedule I believe severely favors the Bruins, with Boise facing outside of the Mountain West, Memphis, UCF, and Washington. All leading to losses, and three defenses that struggled most of 2023. Chip Kelly usually doesn’t associate defense into their game plan making all of his former collegiate teams vulnerable with their inability to stop teams in the past. 2023 not so much! This defense is physical, has speed on the back end and can just flat out play. Stopping BSU’s run game is a tough task, but when slowed down the ball will end up in their QB’s hands to air it out. Ranking top 10 in YPC, meaning they hit the big play due to their run game being so strong. Take that away, well Green is going to struggle. The key to this game is Ethan Garbers stepping on the field. Most of UCLA’s difficulties came at that QB position. Dylan Moore was 100% the reason for many of their losses, but when Garbers took the field, he fit Chip’s system perfectly. Executing the necessary throws and more importantly, not turning the ball over! UCLA avenges last year’s lazy bowl loss, with a victory at So-Fi stadium. Oh, did I mention it’s a home game per say.
Play: UCLA -5.5 (-110) to win 1.65u
9:15pm ET- California vs Texas Tech: Cal gets bowl eligible for the first time since 2019, led by Freshman QB Fernando Mendoza who enjoyed a productive 1st collegiate season throwing for over 1400 yards, 13 touchdowns and only 7 INT’s. Leaning on Sophomore RB Jaydn Ott was a practice that was quite successful. Ott ran for 1443 yards in 2023 and scored 11 touchdowns. Now get to face a Texas Tech squad who ran all over in 2023 and were not much better versus the pass. While teams in general might have quality wins, I think these Bears have some quality losses. 4-point loss to SEC Auburn, 1 point loss to Caleb’s USC Trojans, and blowout road losses to Utah, Oregon, and CFP Washington. Now, facing T.T. is facing is far inferior to any of these squads. Small play here on Cal.
Plays: Cal +3.5 (-110) to win 0.5u, Cal ML (+140) risk 0.25u=0.35u
Parlay: ML “MAC” Parlay (+549) Ohio +120 + Miami OH +195, risk 0.15u=0.84u
Parlay (+600): Ohio +2.5, Miami OH +6.5, UCLA -5.5, risk 0.2u=1.2u
