I enjoyed a 5-1, +3.9u Conference Championship weekend in CFB. I went 13-3 in bowl season in 2020 and finished last year on an 8-0 run. To start us off, I’m rolling with 3 plays for this first set of games on Saturday.
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*CFB(1u): Cincinnati +2 vs Louisville–10 AM CT
Both Cincinnati and Louisville have interim HC’s leading the way after Luke Fickell left for Wisconsin and Scott Satterfield left for… Cincinnati. Satterfield surely knows the strengths and weaknesses of this Cardinals crew which should give the Bearcats an edge. In addition, I think we have a mismatch from an interim coach standpoint. Cincinnati will be led by Kerry Coombs, a tenured and well respected defensive mind who was recently at Ohio State and even spent time in the NFL. On the other side, Louisville has promoted Deion Branch to coach this game; yes, former NFL WR Deion Branch. A totally inexperienced coach at any level, I saw this as a strange move for the Cardinals that sounds a lot better in theory than in practice.
Both teams are playing at far less than full strength. Cincinnati saw 4 of their top 5 receiving options either transfer or opt out, and they will be without QB1 Ben Bryant due to injury. Louisville had their QB1, WR1, CB1, and 2 rotational RB’s all opt out as well.
Cincinnati will turn to Evan Prater at QB, a much more dual-threat option than what they had with Bryant for most of the season. Prater is not an established passer yet, but as exemplified in the Tulane game, he makes a pretty dangerous combination with Cincinnati’s plethora of RB’s in the run game. I haven’t been all that impressed with Louisville’s run defense this year; when we saw them last, a weak Kentucky OL consistently won up front and had their way against the Cardinals. The Cardinals will have success against pass-first teams with shaky OL’s, but neither applies to this matchup. I think Cincinnati will come out with a run-first approach, and with a mobile QB + multiple established RB options, I think this strategy can yield success.
It can’t be understated how much losing WR Tyler Hudson hurts this Louisville offense. He accounted for 69 catches and over 1,000 yards this year; the next Louisville WR only had 31 catches for 421 yards, and the Cards don’t have much quality depth at that position. Jawhar Jordan is a fine RB, but with the transfers at that position, he’s really the only viable option for Louisville at the moment. QB Brett Domann filled in on numerous occasions with Malik Cunningham in-and-out of the lineup and mostly struggled, throwing 2 more INTs than TDs and completing less than 54% of his passes. I really like this Cincinnati defense at all 3 levels. I think they can contain Jordan in the run game, get pressure on the immobile Domann, and handle what is a depleted group of Louisville WR’s.
I like the dynamics of this matchup for Cincinnati on multiple fronts and think the wrong team is favored here.
*CFB(1u): Florida/Oregon State UNDER 53–1:30 PM CT
Florida is in dire straits offensively right now. QB Anthony Richardson and 1st team All-American OL O’Cyrus Torrence both opted out to prepare for the NFL draft, and it is a total mystery as to which set of WR’s will be healthy enough to play. With their backup QB being dismissed from the team, the Gators will turn to Jack Miller(no snaps this season) to run the show. While Miller is a former Ohio State QB that certainly has the tools to be a Power 5 starter, his inexperience combined with the mystery at WR makes this a less than ideal situation for Billy Napier. It would be logical for Florida to turn to the run game given that they have a good 1-2 punch at that position(6 YPC between the two), but that plays right into Oregon State’s strength defensively. Oregon State is also dramatically improved in their secondary this year and should, at the very least, be competent enough to handle their own in this favorable matchup.
Oregon State is a run first offense that is very physical up front. We know Florida’s run defense hasn’t held up well this year, but this is where I think nuance comes into play. Oregon State enjoyed the luxury of playing against some historically bad defenses this season such as Stanford, Colorado, and Arizona State. Hell, even Washington, Oregon, and USC are below average defenses. Whatever Florida throws out there is going to be better than what Oregon State has seen for most of this season. I don’t see Jonathan Smith deviating much from his run-first approach given QB Ben Gulbranson is a true freshman and Florida is stronger in their secondary than against the run. With offenses like Oregon State, even efficient days aren’t going to yield huge dents in the scoreboard.
These are two very slow-paced teams; in fact, Oregon State is one of the slowest-paced teams in all of CFB. I see possessions being at a premium here, and any number above 52 gives us a lot of leeway on the Under.
*CFB(1u): Fresno State -3 vs Washington State–2:30 PM CT
We know one thing about Fresno State Football: They want nothing more than to beat Pac-12 teams. We saw them take down UCLA in the Rose Bowl last year and take 9-3 Oregon State to the wire this year. Whereas Washington State had two of their Top 3 WR’s and their star LB enter the transfer portal, Fresno State is at full strength and treating this as their Super Bowl. Another intangible in our favor: Jeff Tedford is 7-3 SU in bowl season, while Washington State just had both of their coordinators hired away.
I view Washington State’s offense as quite mediocre. Cameron Ward is a serviceable QB that isn’t going to put the ball in harm’s way, but 6.7 Y/A is nothing to write home about. We know about the attrition the Cougars have suffered at WR, but what’s probably most important to note entering this matchup is that Washington State’s OL is relatively weak. Ward has been sacked 4 or more times on 6 separate occasions this year, and their struggles have come against even mediocre DL’s. Fresno State is extremely good against the run and has also featured a tremendously improved pass defense over the course of their 8 game win streak. Washington State has struggled all year at creating explosive plays, and I think that’ll continue in this matchup.
Jake Haener is clearly the better QB in this matchup; a 3 year starter and notable “big game” player, Haener has thrown for 8.5 Y/A over the past 3 years and holds a 6:1 TD/INT ratio here in 2022. Fresno State is not going to create a ton of explosive plays on the ground, but simply put, this is a better, more efficient version of Washington State’s offense. In addition, I don’t think Washington State is going to feature anything more difficult than what Fresno State had to endure in the Mountain West this year. We talked about Washington State’s attrition at LB, but the Cougars have also had their fair share of struggles against the pass in some of their tougher matchups(it’s inexcusable to look as bad as they did vs Washington).
This is really a “stars align” sort of spot for Fresno State. I’d try to grab this while you can in case this shoots above Fresno State -4 and becomes too rich.
