A 1-1 split brings my CBB record to 26-20-1, +2u. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to break out.
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*CBB(0.5u): Alcorn State TT UNDER 56.5 @ Dayton–6 PM CT
Alcorn State’s offense is absolutely insufferable. The Braves shoot just 37% from the floor, 26.5% from deep, and hold a brutal 0.7 assist/turnover ratio. Dayton has plenty of limitations offensively, but their defense is staunch per usual; they’ve allowed less than 50 points on 4 separate occasions already this year. Perhaps what’s most important regarding a TT is that Dayton runs at a bottom 30 pace in the country and will slow this game down to a standstill. With possessions at a premium, I have a hard time seeing Alcorn State get into the upper 50’s.
*CBB(0.5u): Providence PK vs Marquette–6 PM CT
Give Shaka Smart credit for having Marquette up to snuff once again this season, but his team lacks in a few critical areas that always prove to be crucial in these sort of games. First off, the Golden Eagles are weak on the boards; they rank 268th in offensive rebounding % and 161st in defensive rebounding %. Secondly, Marquette is sizably worse at the free throw line than their counterparts in this matchup(69% vs 73.5%). Marquette has had some flawless performances this season in some of their bigger spots, but I simply can’t trust them on the road in a hostile environment when they can’t check the small boxes. Ed Cooley and the Friars get their first marquee win of the season tonight.
*CBB(0.5u): Baylor TT OVER 90.5 vs Northwestern State–7 PM CT
It’s been awhile since Baylor has drawn this favorable of a matchup. The Bears have fallen off the national radar after losses to Virginia and Marquette, but let’s not forget how good they’ve been in this role. Playing similar competition in their first 3 games, Baylor averaged a whopping 99.7 PPG. I have Northwestern State power-rated as a bottom 30 defense in all of CBB; last we saw of the Demons, they allowed 110 at Rice. Specifically, they don’t run at a slow enough pace to keep Baylor from naming their number here. Baylor very well might get into the triple digits tonight.
