The Birmingham Bowl, Birmingham Alabama – Memphis vs Wake Forest +3.5 O/U 73
What can you say about Memphis? This team had ample opportunity to beat their rival UCF leading in both games that they played them and then choked the game away in the 4th quarter. Now this team slightly steps up in class to play a Wake Forest team who somehow beat NC State and Duke in their last 3 games to make a bowl. Wake Forest’s weakness is against the run allowing 4.85 yards per rush and being average at best in the rushing and passing game. The Tigers are actually great at rushing the ball at 6.6 yards per run but they also played a much more inferior schedule to the Demon Deacons. Memphis is a top 4 team in yards per play at 7.4 but they give up a healthy 6 on defense. Now I would factor the stats in more if Wake Forest didn’t play a MUCH harder schedule than Memphis playing teams like Clemson, Notre Dame, Syracuse and Duke. Wake forest plays very fast at 84 plays per game but they are not very efficient on 3rd down. Memphis plays fast against good teams and I think they may force Wake into a one dimensional type shootout here. Dusting off the trusty old Algorithm I have this total up to 76
Lean Over 73
The Armed Forces Bowl, Fort Worth Texas – Houston vs Army – 3 O/U 61
There isn’t a more perfect bowl bowl game for Army than this one of course. They should definitely get some fans there. On the other hand, the fact that this bowl is in Texas 262 miles from Houston, I think you may see some Houston fans as well. Now Houston was a great team again this year and their coach Major Applewhite (another thing that fits this game) has done a fantastic job beating teams like Arizona and South Florida but the important thing to me is that we can’t forget the downgrade that we have to assign this Houston when they lost their QB D’Erik King. The final score of their Memphis game was a bit misleading due to a pick 6. I do like Houston’s interim QB Clayton Tune but now he will be facing a much more disciplined defense in Army who only allows 18 points per game, 4 yards per rush and 5.7 yards per play. Now we know that Houston plays fast and all but Army runs the ball hard and should be able to run the clock, control time of possession and pound pound pound. Now I really do not care in this game as much what Houston does against the pass but I do know that their defense averages a decent 4.25 yards against each rush. I think Houston should be able to stack this box a bit and force Army on some 3 and outs. I don’t really like a side in this game due to the QB issues with Houston, but I do like the fact that this total seems to be a tad bit too high facing an option team.
Houston under 61
The Dollar General Bowl, Mobile Alabama – Buffalo vs Troy +2
Do you know what the drive is from Troy Alabama to Mobile Alabama? 3 hours and 1 minute with approximately $12 to $13 spent on gas. I don’t think we need to discuss how far Buffalo is. Troy is a very solid team getting 5.9 yards per play on offense and only giving up 5 on defense. Troy is very good against the run beating teams like Georgia Southern, Louisiana and Nebraska early in the year. They overall had a pretty easy schedule only losing to Boise State early, Liberty and Appalachian State. Buffalo on the other hand is a similar team who gets about 5.8 yards per play and gives up 5.2. I think when you look at skill positions and QB you have to give it up to the Bulls with Tyree Jackson at the helm throwing to Anthony Johnson. Both guys will be in the NFL and this is their final audition. The Trojans on the other hand actually lost their starting Quarterback Kaleb Barker on October 6th and since has used a lesser Sawyer Smith starting and not looking quite as good. Troy has made many bowl games and this really isn’t anything new for them. Not much of a reward if you ask me playing another group of 5 school in your home state. Buffalo on the other hand should be very motivated having their first bowl game in many years and has NEVER won a bowl game. The Bulls have some unfinished business from that Mac loss to Northern Illinois. I also like the fact that Buffalo will be playing on field turf and it should help their speed. The key handicap here is motivation vs home field advantage and I have to go with the Bulls -2.
Buffalo -2 and lean the over 51.5
Hawaii Bowl, Honolulu Hawaii – LA Tech vs Hawaii PK O/U 60
Not going to lie to you here. There is no teams in these bowl games that I know less about this year. Both teams areabout 6-6 ATS. It is also very hard to gauge motivation here. You have Hawaii that is kinda punished by getting a bowl game at home yet it is there home field advantage and you have some kids from Louisiana who get a free trip to Hawaii. I know that the Rainbow Warriors have the better offense and the Bulldogs have the better defense. Both teams pass more than 50% of the time. Both teams are relatively healthy. Hawaii had the slightly harder schedule. I ran the numbers and have this game La Tech 28 and Hawaii 27. In this instance the only thing that I can lean towards is the under 60 for now.
Lean Under 60
