Sitting at 28-24-1 on the season, I’m rolling with 3 CBB plays for tonight looking to bounce back from a rough Wednesday. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CBB(0.5u): Jackson State/Stephen F Austin OVER 142.5–2 PM CT
Both of these teams rank in the top quarter of the country in pace, and Jackson State ranks outside of the Top 300 in defensive efficiency. SFA shoots 49% from the field and nearly 40% from beyond the arc; with their pace in mind, they should be able to get whatever they want offensively. Jackson State doesn’t have that sort of pedigree offensively, but context is needed. The Tigers have played one of the 5 hardest schedules in the country, already having matched up with Michigan, Indiana, TCU, Mississippi State, Texas Tech, and Alabama. When you exclude these games against laughably superior competition, JSU is averaging 74 PPG. The Lumberjacks won’t provide the level of resistance defensively that the Tigers are used to facing, and I think JSU will hold their own.
*CBB(0.5u): Texas Southern TT UNDER 60 @ Wichita State–7 PM CT
Wichita State is absolutely dreadful offensively, and I actually think Texas Southern can hold their own on that end of the floor. What TSU won’t be able to do, however, is create any separation offensively. Already this year, we’ve seen Wichita State allow 55 points or less on 5 separate occasions. Their game plan will be to slow the pace of this game down considerably and suffocate TSU on the defensive end. Given the Tigers shoot just 41% from the field, 26.5% from beyond the arc, and hold an assist/turnover ratio under 1, I see that plan working out quite nicely. Why does this TT start with a 6?
*CBB(0.5u): Illinois/Missouri OVER 153.5–8 PM CT
Illinois is going to get whatever they want down low in this matchup. Missouri is one of the smallest teams in all of CBB, a big reason why they rank just 309th in defensive rebounding %. Illinois, on the other hand, is a Top 40 offensive rebounding team in the country. Give Mizzou credit for their 10-1 start, but they’ve only played 1 Power 5 team up to this point; Kansas hung 95 on the Tigers rather easily.
For as much as I want to fade Missouri’s defense, I do trust their offense in this matchup. Mizzou has shot over 50% from the floor, over 36% from beyond the arc, over 74% from the FT line, and they hold an astounding 1.6 assist/turnover ratio. To top it all off, they run at a Top 15 pace in all of CBB. For as strong as I perceive Illinois to be defensively, they will be pushed to their limits facing a very complete Mizzou offense that runs with a lot of tempo.
