I’m off to a 2-1 start in Bowl Season and have enjoyed a nice 7-2 run in CFB. Things will ramp up considerably next week, but before that, I’ve locked in one play for Christmas Eve looking to keep us rolling!
There is a possibility that I add one more play on this pre-Christmas slate if I get the line move I’m looking for. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CFB(1u): Middle Tennessee State/San Diego State UNDER 49–12/24 7 PM CT
San Diego State is an Under team at their core. The Aztecs run at the 6th slowest pace in the country, and they are notoriously poor at finishing drives. In their 32 red zone series this year(that number is low to begin with), they have managed just 12 TD’s… ATROCIOUS stuff. QB Jalen Mayden has shown some bright spots(8.9 Y/A is encouraging), but this is a run-first team that ranks outside of the Top 100 in yards/play. MTSU has had a few blips against some of the more explosive backs they’ve faced, but they have otherwise been quite solid going up against the run. Given SDSU’s lack of big play ability in the backfield, I don’t see many explosive runs in this matchup. Moreover, I think the Blue Raiders hold a slight edge in the trenches and can pressure Mayden if Brady Hoke plays things more aggressively(which I don’t think will be the case). I have a hard time seeing the Aztecs get past 27.
With all that said, San Diego State is nails in their Front 7 defensively and will make MTSU QB Chase Cunningham’s life hell all night. Cunningham has thrown for a remarkably mediocre 7 Y/A this year, and the Blue Raiders struggle to create any explosiveness in the run game themselves; overall, this offense ranks just 98th in yards/play. When fast-paced teams are able to create explosive plays in multiple ways(think Tennessee or Washington), you won’t want to play an Under. In this instance, I find the Blue Raiders’ pace to be pretty inconsequential considering the severe disadvantages they face across multiple areas.
Each of these offenses lacks in critical areas, while each defense is good against the run and should have the edge in the trenches. It can’t be overstated how poor SDSU is at finishing drives; ultimately, that alone should keep this Under the total. I’d play this at anything 48 or higher.
