I’m off to a 3-2, +1.35u start in Bowl Season! I’m rolling with 4 plays up until December 29th and will be back in a few days with the rest of my bowl plays through January 2nd.
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*CFB(1u): Coastal Carolina/East Carolina OVER 64–12/27 5:45 PM CT
This matchup features two below average secondaries, and I think each offense is equipped to take advantage.
Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall will play in this game before finding a new home at the Power 5 level. Quite frankly, I think the world of McCall. He features a 12:1 TD/INT ratio and has thrown for over 9 Y/A here in 2022. Coastal Carolina is traditionally a spread option offense, but with HC Jamie Chadwell off to Liberty, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the Chants lean more towards the pass in their season finale. That would be the smart move in this matchup given ECU’s clear strength defensively is going up against the run while they have allowed over 8 Y/A through the air on 9 separate occasions this year.
East Carolina’s offense will succeed in this game because they are centered around star RB Keaton Mitchell. The Sophomore ran for over 1300 yards this year at nearly 7.5 YPC and shined even in his more difficult matchups. The Chants have been mostly good against the run by Sun Belt standards, but they’ve also been inconsistent enough to where I have little faith they will halt the Pirates on the ground. ECU QB Holton Ahlers is far from a world beater(7.9 Y/A), but he does boast a 23:5 TD/INT ratio and is certainly capable of taking advantage of this weak Chants secondary.
I don’t expect either QB to be under much duress, and I expect each to connect on explosive plays rather easily in this matchup. This game gets played in the upper 60’s at least.
*CFB(1u): Kansas/Arkansas OVER 69–12/28 4:30 PM CT
I typically wouldn’t be willing to play an Over at this number when one team’s objective(Kansas) will be to slow this game to a standstill. However, the defensive issues on each side are that extreme, and each offense is well equipped to take advantage.
Kansas has a very repeatable path to success offensively. This OL has allowed just 8 sacks all season and have paved the way for RB Devin Neal to run for over 6 YPC this season. QB’s Jalon Daniels and Jason Bean were both throwing for over 9 Y/A late in the season before Daniels struggled upon his return from injury; with a full month to prepare, I expect Daniels to look quite sharp against this Razorbacks defense. Arkansas had its top two LB’s opt out to prepare for the NFL Draft, and their Back 7 struggled tremendously all season. They allowed over 500 yards on the ground to Ole Miss late in the year and really just have a lack of quality talent in their secondary. Kansas might run slow, but this is still an offense that put up 35 or more on 5 seperate Power 5 opponents this year; there’s a reason the Jayhawks rank 9th in yards/play.
With KJ Jefferson healthy, I LOVE this Razorbacks offense. RB Rocket Sanders ran for over 1400 yards this year at 6.5 YPC, and Jefferson is a true dual-threat QB(8.7 Y/A through the air, over 500 yards on the ground). The Razorbacks might be thin at WR at the moment, but I don’t expect it to matter going up against a truly terrible Kansas defense. The Jayhawks allowed 47 PPG over their last 3 games and, like Arkansas, feature a Back 7 that is vulnerable against the run and pass. Unlike Kansas, Arkansas will run with a good amount of pace in this matchup.
I struggle to see a path to stops for either one of these defenses, and each of these offenses are equipped to take advantage. Over is the play.
*CFB(1u): Oregon TT OVER 44 vs North Carolina–12/28 7 PM CT
Oregon’s offense vs North Carolina’s defense is perhaps the biggest mismatch we’ll see this bowl season.
Oregon will win at the line of scrimmage at an elite rate in this matchup; the Ducks have allowed just 4 sacks all season, while UNC’s biggest struggle defensively has been their inability to get pressure on the QB. Along with that, UNC’s secondary is utterly atrocious. Over their last 3 games, UNC has been beaten by Georgia Tech’s 3rd string QB, NC State’s 4th string QB, and Clemson’s freshman QB with zero experience. Bo Nix is a true dual threat(8.9 Y/A as a passer, 6 YPC as a runner) that will absolutely feast in this matchup. Give UNC credit for improving against the run over the course of the season, but with 3 separate 6 YPC guys to defend(including Nix), I have a hard time seeing the Ducks get held down on the ground. Pace will be on our side here as both teams like to use tempo to their advantage.
I would lean heavily towards Oregon -14.5 as well, but I want to isolate the matchup I feel best about and not worry about a potential one-man effort from UNC QB Drake Maye. The Ducks have been one of the most consistent and explosive offenses in the country all year; I see no reason why that stops against this pungent UNC defense.
*CFB(1u): Minnesota -10 vs Syracuse–12/29 1 PM CT
I’ve loved backing this Minnesota team all year, particularly when they’re expected to win by margin against a clearly inferior opponent. We all know the Gophers have a Top 10 defense in the country that is particularly staunch against the run, but this offense is significantly undervalued as well.
Veteran QB Tanner Morgan has flirted with returning from injury to play this game, but I’m comfortable laying 10 with the Gophers if Athan Kaliakmanis is needed again. Both QB’s are at or over 8.5 Y/A on the season, and the Gophers are able to run the ball against anybody with their physical front and bellcow RB Mo Ibrahim. Syracuse is without their Top 2 cover corners for this game, taking away from what was previously the strength of this defense. Their Front 7 has not stepped up well against physical fronts and effective run games like Minnesota will feature(think Notre Dame and Florida State).
Syracuse will be without arguably their most talented player in RB Sean Tucker. Tucker didn’t have the year we expected due to having to run behind a pretty weak OL; with him not available, I think Minnesota will be rather dominant going up against the run. Syracuse QB Garrett Schrader was a huge surprise this season(8.7 Y/A), but I do think his overall numbers are misleading. He padded his stats with great games against UCONN, Wagner, Boston College, and Wake Forest, but he also proved to be ineffective against Purdue, Notre Dame, and Florida State. Minnesota’s secondary is good but not great, but with the other stark advantages they hold on this side of the ball, I think it’ll be more than enough.
Gophers win this game handily.
