I bring a 32-24-1 CBB record into tonight and am rolling with 3 plays looking to keep us on the right side. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CBB(0.5u): Fordham PK vs Davidson–6 PM CT
Davidson is not the same sharp-shooting team we have become accustomed to over the years; they shoot just 45.5% from the floor and 34.5% from beyond the arc. That’s fine, but I don’t believe it will be another to overcome what’s going to be a massive disadvantage down low. Fordham is a Top 25 defensive rebounding team in America, while Davidson is 336th in offensive rebounding %. Similarly, Davidson blocks just 1.7 shots/game compared to Fordham’s 5.8.
Fordham can be sloppy with the basketball, and I’ll concede that they played a very easy non-conference schedule. With that said, the Rams’ advantage at the free-throw line combined with the mismatch they have down low should give Fordham the home W in this one.
*CBB(0.5u): Kentucky -3 @ Missouri–6 PM CT
Missouri has played 2 Tournament caliber teams all season; while they blew Illinois out last week, they lost by 28 to Kansas at home a few Saturdays ago. The Tigers run at a maniacally fast pace and have shot the lights out up to this point in the season. However, I think Kentucky is equipped to hold their own on this end of the floor. John Calipari’s squad has been tuned up by having to play Gonzaga, Michigan, and UCLA already, and this is a Wildcats team that I expect to be led by their defense throughout the course of the season.
I think Kentucky will score at will in this matchup. This is a Missouri defense that allowed 95 to Kansas and 75 to lowly Wichita State, making them FAR AND AWAY the worst unit on the floor tonight. Kentucky is shooting 40% from beyond the arc this year, and they will hold a major edge on the boards; Kentucky ranks 6th in offensive rebounding %, while Missouri ranks 335th in defensive rebounding %.
Missouri’s path to stay in this game is elite shotmaking, something I don’t think is overly sustainable as they step up in competition. Wildcats pull away and win this one comfortably.
*CBB(0.5u): Baylor 1H -12 vs Nicholls–7 PM CT
After a fast start to begin the season, Baylor has not been up to snuff in recent weeks. Last we saw of the Bears, they won by just 10 against lowly Northwestern State and put up just 58 against one of the worst defenses in the country. With that said, I expect a solid effort from the Bears early in this game after having over a week off.
Nicholls State has actually put up a good fight against the likes of Texas Tech and Mississippi State recently, but their style of play leaves them vulnerable to getting schelacked in these sort of matchups. The Colonels are below average on both ends of the floor, yet they run at one of the fastest paces in the country; it’s no surprise Arizona put up 117 against them. Baylor is going to match Nicholls’ pace but pair it with far better efficiency on both ends of the floor. This game will be over by Halftime.
