I’m off to a 5-3, +2.25u start in Bowl Season! I’ve locked in 5 more plays from the 30th-31st, including a play on each CFP Semifinal. I’ll be back with my January 2nd plays at a later date.
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College Football Playoff
*CFB(1u): Michigan -7.5 vs TCU–12/31 3 PM CT
TCU had a cinderella run in Year 1 of the Sonny Dykes era and had multiple second half comebacks along the way, but I don’t think they’re ready for this sort of matchup on either side of the ball.
TCU’s offense is very explosive, but it’s not overly consistent. QB Max Duggan has thrived in the deep passing game this season, but he worsens significantly in the short-to-intermediate passing game. This is simply TCU’s style and a big reason why they’re here, but it also means I don’t see them consistently sustaining drives against an elite Michigan defense. This Wolverines secondary held both CJ Stroud and Sean Clifford in check, and I think they’ll hold up well here. It seems like TCU RB Kendre Miller has a 50+ yard run each week, but that can somewhat mislead you as to his level of consistency. The TCU OL has been shaky in Big12 play and will now face a major step up in competition; I expect Michigan to win up front and contain the Horned Frogs rushing attack. I wouldn’t be surprised if TCU starts fast and hits on some explosives, but when it comes down to sustaining drives against an elite defense, I think that’s where TCU ends up faltering.
Michigan is a run-first offense that isn’t overly sexy, but it’s not hard to see why they’re undefeated. This Wolverines OL is good at protecting QB JJ McCarthy, and they’ve paved the way for multiple 6+ YPC rushers. Donovan Edwards is an incredibly effective back(7.5 YPC) that will carry the majority of the load in this game. We saw TCU step up big time vs Bijan Robinson(Texas), but that seems to have been a one-off. The TCU secondary has also had some slip-ups; Will Howard threw for 11.3 Y/A against this unit earlier in the year, and Baylor QB Blake Shapen threw for 9 Y/A on the Frogs. JJ McCarthy has not been given the full reigns to the offense, but he takes care of the football(3 INT’s) and is plenty capable of taking advantage of a leaky secondary.
I expect TCU to come out strong and put up a good fight, but Michigan’s style is far more sustainable over the course of a 60 minute game. Wolverines pull away in the 2nd Half and win this by double digits.
*CFB(1u): Ohio State +6.5 vs Georgia–12/31 7 PM CT
I have backed Georgia in their bigger matchups all season and think the world of what Kirby Smart has built in Athens. But as I handicap this matchup, I think Ohio State can go toe-to-toe with the Bulldogs. This is not as much me looking to fade Georgia, but I do think the Buckeyes are being a bit overlooked after their horrific loss to Michigan.
I have sung the praises of Stetson Bennett all season and think he’s a far better QB than given credit for. Still, there’s little doubt in my mind that CJ Stroud is the better QB in this matchup. I also think Ohio State is slightly better at RB than Georgia; the Bulldogs’ run game is my main knit pick of the offense. Lastly, the Buckeyes convert red zone chances to TD’s at an elite 75% rate, while Georgia has settled for 21 red zone FG’s this season.
Ohio State clearly can’t afford to have as many breakdowns in their Back 7 defensively as they had against Michigan; if they do, we can throw this ticket in the trash. With that said, this is still a defense that is far improved from a year ago and especially stout in their Front 7. I still think Georgia’s defense is probably the best in the land, but they did just allow 500 yards through the air to LSU. You can’t overadjust from what you saw from one game on one given day; that principle applies to both defenses. But, I do think Georgia’s performance in the SEC Title shows they are not unbeatable through the air.
Quite honestly, I think this will be an epic back-and-forth game and an instant classic that comes down to the finish. There’s a reason that this number has not budged and moved to 7 despite everybody and their mother unloading on UGA. I think the Buckeyes keep it within the number.
Other Plays(Dec 30th-31st)
*CFB(1u): Notre Dame -3 vs South Carolina–12/30 2:30 PM CT
Notre Dame had a few premier players opt out for this game(DE Isaiah Foskey, TE Michael Mayer), but actually, South Carolina fared far worse in that department. The Gamecocks will be without their top 2 CB’s, a starting OL, their top 2 TE’s, their RB1, and two other defensive starters. In addition, I believe this line is overly reactionary to South Carolina’s strong finish to the season and neglects multiple red flags we saw consistently over the course of the year.
Without MarShawn Lloyd at RB, the Gamecocks looked mostly inept offensively this year; no other RB eclipsed 4 YPC this season. Spencer Rattler’s 7.9 Y/A is, let’s be frank, relatively unimpressive. Even with Foskey out, I think the Irish are a very complete defense from front-to-back. They will beat South Carolina up front and dominate against the run, forcing Rattler to beat them consistently with his arm. People will love to talk about South Carolina’s offensive success against Tennessee and Clemson, but let’s not forget, they also put up 6 points vs Florida, 10 points vs Missouri, and less than 300 total yards vs Texas A&M.
Notre Dame QB Drew Pyne entered the portal just in time for original starter Tyler Buchner to return from injury. I don’t view this as a huge loss for Notre Dame and think these guys are interchangeable; there’s probably a reason Buchner won the job over Pyne to begin with. The passing game will take a hit with Michael Mayer opting out, but they will gain all of that back with their ability to run the football. Audric Estime emerged as a difference making back for the Irish throughout the season(5.8 YPC, 11 TD’s), and South Carolina’s weakness defensively is stopping the run. This year, the Gamecocks allowed 295 yards rushing to Arkansas, 226 yards rushing to Vanderbilt, and 375 yards rushing to Florida. While their secondary had been the strength all season, I have my doubts that will continue with the attrition at CB.
I love this matchup for Notre Dame at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and think we’re getting a discounted line after everybody saw South Carolina win on a national stage late in the season. I’ve had a lot of success backing the Irish in these sorts of spots this year, and I’ll trust them once again.
*CFB(1u): Clemson/Tennessee OVER 63.5–12/30 7 PM CT
Tennessee has a style of play that they live and die by. Even without Hendon Hooker, this is an offense that’s going to run at a manically fast pace and use tempo in the run game to catch a defense sleeping in the vertical passing game. Defensively, their secondary has proven to be quite atrocious(see Florida and South Carolina games); in turn, they live by a “boom-or-bust” nature and sell out to pressure the QB. Is Tennessee at full strength offensively? No. Do I think that changes much? Also no.
Tennessee QB Joe Milton is not your typical backup. He might have one of the strongest arms in the country, and he has proven to be quite underrated when he gets his chances(8.5 career Y/A). This season, he has thrown for over 13 Y/A and just led the Vols to a 56-0 win over Vanderbilt. Clemson is still pretty good against the run, but we have seen them struggle in their secondary on multiples occasions(South Carolina and Wake Forest). They also have two starters in their Front 7 opt out for this game, so I’m not conceding Tennessee won’t be able to establish the run. Did I mention the pace that Tennessee runs at?
Cade Klubnik is a clear upgrade at QB over DJ Uiagalelei; we saw Klubnik expose UNC’s secondary in the ACC title game, and he draws a similar matchup here. I do think Tennessee will force Klubnik into some mistakes and hit on some of their all-out blitz packages, but over the course of a 60 minute game, I also think Cade Klubnik will have no problem hitting on explosive plays. Ultimately, I think the freshman tosses 4-5 TD’s alone. Clemson RB Will Shipley is a good back, but Tennessee has been pretty stout against the run; this area of the matchup is a stalemate.
Both of these secondaries will be vulnerable in this particular matchup, and the sheer pace should push this over the total. I would’ve made this 66.5.
*CFB(1u): Iowa/Kentucky UNDER 31–12/31 11 AM CT
I played the Iowa/Minnesota UNDER 32.5 late in the season and cashed, so I’m no stranger to playing these low totals. While this a historically low total, this checks every single box I look for when playing an Under.
After Will Levis opted out and Iowa had to settle on their 3rd stringer, these starting QB’s have combined for ZERO attempts over their career(s). Iowa has a borderline elite secondary and top 5 defense as a whole, while Kentucky’s strength defensively is limiting explosive plays through the air. Kentucky lost their top 2 RB’s to opt out and have consistently got manhandled up front all season; the same can be said about Iowa unless they’re playing Northwestern. Both teams have a <55% red zone TD% on the season, and to top it all off, both run at a snails pace offensively.
Where is the path to points here? This total is historically low, but I’d argue it’s not low enough.
