A 1-2-1 night drops me to 11-11-1 on the CBB season. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to break out! To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group.
*CBB(0.5u): Miami(FL) TT OVER 84.5 vs Cornell –6 PM CT
Cornell is a team that runs with a lot of pace, but when stepping up in competition, that strategy is really going to hurt their defense(which ranks 234th according to KenPom). They have played only 1 Power 5 opponent this season(Boston College); despite having an offense that ranks outside the KenPom Top 200, the Golden Eagles had no issue putting up 79 on Cornell that night.
Miami presents a set of athletes that the Big Red simply haven’t dealt with this year. While the Hurricanes don’t specialize at 3-point shooting, they are great inside and should feast in this matchup considering Cornell ranks just 221st in defensive rebounding %. The ‘Canes are also great from the foul line, hitting nearly 75% of their FT’s. With the pace Cornell is going to bring into Coral Gables, I can see Miami getting to 90 here. Cornell could keep this competitive with their good jump shooting, but I will isolate the matchup I feel best about.
*CBB(0.5u): Southern Illinois -4 vs Indiana State–7 PM CT
This line is very telling; 8-1 Indiana State is a sizable ‘dog to run-of-the-mill 5-3 Southern Illinois. First of all, I don’t like this 2nd straight road game spot for ISU after they played at Miami OH just a few days ago. Secondly, I don’t think the Sycamores’ 8-1 record is a good reflection of their talent considering they have played the 20th easiest schedule in the nation up to this point. I don’t think you can expect them to keep their current pace of play up in a road, conference game against an underrated Salukis squad.
The best unit on the floor tonight is clearly Southern Illinois’ defense; they rank 46th according to KenPom and have the likes of Oklahoma State and UNLV to 60 or less this year. While they slipped a bit on the road against a good Saint Louis this past weekend, I think they are equipped to shut down ISU tonight. Salukis win this game comfortably.
*CBB(0.5u): Arizona State/SMU UNDER 135.5–8 PM CT
This matchup checks a lot of the boxes I look for when playing Unders. Both teams shoot less than 70% from the FT line, less than 30% from 3pt land, are not great offensive rebounding bunches, and hold Assist/Turnover ratios around 1. Many people saw Arizona State blitz Michigan a few weeks ago, but that was an anomaly for this offense; they were held to just 60 points in their last road matchup at Colorado. SMU is clearly not the same team we’ve become accustomed to, but that has much more to say about the offensive playmaking they’ve lost. This is a major step-up spot for the Mustangs playing a Power 5 opponent, and I don’t think they have a whole lot of trouble getting stops. Still, Arizona State’s defense is by far the best unit on the floor, and SMU’s offensive woes are too gruesome to overlook.
I expect this to be a competitive game, but Under is the best play.
