Coming off a 2-1 night, I’m rolling with one play for tonight on what is a pretty short slate. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CBB(0.5u): Iowa -4 vs Iowa State–6 PM CT
Just two nights ago, we saw Iowa look pretty poor in a double-digit loss to Duke at MSG. No rest for the weary, however, as the Hawkeyes return back home to take on their in-state rival. The first thing that jumps out to me is that this is a MAJOR revenge spot for the Hawkeyes after they were obliterated in Ames last year by a clearly inferior opponent.
Like most Big12 teams, Iowa State defends at a very high level; with that said, this is an offense I want to be fading, especially in hostile road environments. The Cyclones shoot just 44% from the field, less than 70% from the free throw line, and less than 32% from 3. Given the snails pace they like to play at, this is a team that’s going to try to engage in a lot of ugly affairs. Iowa, on the other hand, is a “run-and-gun team” that does a lot of little things right. They hold a stark FT% advantage in this game and lead the nation with a dazzling 1.9 Assist/Turnover ratio.
I can trust the Hawkeyes in their home gym given they’ve won by at least 16 in every home game this season. Meanwhile, this is Iowa State’s first true road game of the season. I would’ve made this number at least 6, so I see quite a bit of value in trusting the short home favorite in this rivalry game.
