Welcome to a new Theoddsbreakers.com endeavor. Getting you our loyal readers some insight into developing NFL DFS Lineups built to perform in Double/Triple-Ups, Head to Head and 50/50s. Building a high-floor winner every week in these formats allows your bankroll to grow and take some shots at the High dollar contests that DFS has to offer.
I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main Sunday slate of games. If you play on DraftKings, it is a 13-game slate starting at 12:00 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you use Fanduel or any of the other DFS platforms you may have different rosters and values.
Lamar Jackson, QB: $7,300. Jackson didn’t play in the Pre-season but I don’t expect him to come out rusty. There is something to be said for motivation when playing for a contract. I think Jackson has a big year and it starts vs the Jets. NYJ had the worst YPG allowed in 2021 and while they improved in some places adding Sauce Gardner and Jermaine Johnson in the first round this year, the unit still leaves a lot to be desired. The Jets allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing tight ends in 2021 and Mark Andrews should be Lamar’s prime target.
Derrick Henry, RB: $8,600. Not sure if you’ve heard or not, but Derrick Henry is healthy. He only played 8 games in 2021, but he found the end-zone 3 times in a game in 3 of those contests. The opponent for the Titans on Sunday is the Giants who gave up 129 YPG on the ground last year. I expect the Titans to be in control late and Henry to close this one out earning plenty of points along the way.
Dameon Pierce, RB: $4,800. I know what you are saying. Knoche, I thought you said High-Floor guys here? Well I did, but I still need to fit into the salary cap and with spending up for Jackson and Henry I have to find some value here and at Flex and WR2. Typically when I build lineups I find my top 2 selections and my DEF and then work backwards from there. Lovie said Pierce is starting and for me that is good enough at this price to get him in lineups. I actually think he will be in a very high percentage of lineups Sunday. Now its possible the Colts run away with this game early, but I don’t think so. Week 1 Divisional Home Dogs are 19-4 ATS going back to 2009. The spread may be 7, but I think the Texans keep it close enough to get Pierce 15+ touches and maybe he can find the end-zone. Rex Burkhead will steal some touches on passing downs.
Skyy Moore, WR: $3,800. Moore will slot into Mecole Hardman’s role in the Chiefs high-powered attack and is a huge value at this price. Hardman averaged over 5 targets a game last year. While Mecole only found the end-zone twice look for Skyy who I think is far more talented to land there often. He will be the KC deep threat as that is where he was targeted in the Pre-season and it’s possible he pushes Hardman for some of Tyreek Hill’s snaps as well.
Jarvis Landry, WR: $5,000. With Michael Thomas coming back Landry will likely be Jameis #2 option. Thomas is however still recovering from his hamstring issue and I expect Landry to get plenty of targets. With Thomas drawing the top coverage options and schemes look for Jameis to view Landry like Crab Legs at a Publix.
Marquise Brown, WR: $6,200. Hollywood Brown should be the top option for Kyler Murray and the Cards should be chasing points against Kansas City. The Chiefs secondary lost 3 starters from last year and while I like Trent McDuffie, I don’t think this unit is as strong as 2021 and they weren’t great then. I like him to find pay-dirt in this one.
Mark Andrews, TE: $6,800. I mentioned him earlier, and I was actually surprised all the top TE options were as cheap as they are. Look for him to be targeted early, often and in the Red Zone. In the 12 games Jackson played last year Andrews had double digit targets in 5 of them. My only fear here is if the Ravens get up big in the first half they may slow things down in the second half.
Olamide Zaccheaus, Flex: $4,000. Well I don’t think highly of Olamide, but with Calvin Ridley out for the year and Drake London questionable he should get plenty of looks. Mariota played sparingly in the pre-season but I did like the ways the Falcons schemed him. He’s still better than Geno Smith and he has to throw it to someone besides Kyle Pitts.
Tennessee, DST: $3,500. Think of this as a stack with Derrick Henry. The Giants were 31st on offense in YPG in 2021. DO they get Sequon Barkley back? Yes. Will he be the answer to getting the rushing game going? Yes. Will it be week 1 against the Titans? No. Mike Vrabel goes all out to stop the run and Sunday will be no different. The Giants were also 26th in Turnover Margin per game and I like that with Daniel Jones likely to have to throw the ball late in this one.
