DraftKings “King of the Course” U.S. Open Promo — Strategy + Picks

By
Patrick Gates
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With $1,000,000 in bonus bets on the line, DraftKings is rolling out its “King of the Course” promo for the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont. Here’s how it works — and more importantly, how you should approach it from a betting strategy standpoint.

How the Promo Works

Place an outright bet on any golfer to win the U.S. Open. If your selection records the most birdies or better in Rounds 3 and 4 combined, you’ll earn a share of a $1,000,000 bonus bet pool — regardless of whether they win.

That’s right: your pick doesn’t need to win the tournament; they just need to rack up the most red numbers on the weekend.

Step 1: Pick a Player Who Will Make the Cut

This sounds obvious, but it’s the foundation of the entire promo. If your golfer misses the cut, they won’t be playing Rounds 3 and 4, and your entry is dead.

U.S. Open Cut Rules: Top 60 and ties after 36 holes. That’s a tighter cut line than most PGA Tour events (usually Top 65 and ties), making it even more crucial to target consistent players.

Step 2: Understand Oakmont’s Scoring Landscape

Oakmont is one of the toughest tests in golf, but even the most difficult venues have scoring windows. Let’s break down where birdies are most likely to come from this weekend.

Birdie Hotspots at Oakmont (Based on 2016 Data)

Par 5s

  • Hole 4 (611 yards): 98 birdies (Birdie or Better Rank: 2)
  • Hole 12 (632 yards): 77 birdies (Birdie or Better Rank: 4)
    Target stat: Par 5 scoring from 600 to 650 yards

Par 3s

  • Hole 3 (182 yards): Birdie or Better Rank: 3 (best chance)
  • Hole 6 (231 yards): Rank 7
  • Hole 8 (288 yards): Rank 18
  • Hole 16 (231 yards): Rank 15
    Insight: Birdies are rare on long Par 3s. Hole 3 is your best shot.

Par 4s

  • Hole 17 (313 yards): Rank 1
  • Hole 2 (340 yards): Rank 5
  • Hole 14 (358 yards): Rank 6
  • Hole 11 (370 yards): Rank 8
  • Hole 5 (382 yards): Rank 9
    Target stat: Par 4 scoring from 300 to 400 yards

Step 3: Key Stats to Target

To maximize your odds of winning, the key is finding players who are aggressive, can survive Oakmont’s difficulty, and go low when the putter heats up.

Core Stats

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Birdies or Better Gained (on difficult scoring conditions)
  • Driving Distance (Oakmont stretches over 7,300 yards)
  • Strokes Gained: Putting (on Poa annua greens with lightning speed)
  • Round 3 and Round 4 Birdies or Better %

Two Strategic Approaches

Strategy 1 — Maximize Birdie Opportunities

Focus on players who can take full advantage of the few scoring holes at Oakmont.

Key stat buckets:

  • Par 3 scoring from 175–200 yards
  • Par 4 scoring from 300–400 yards
  • Proximity from 75–100 yards
  • Par 5 scoring from 600–650 yards

Ideal profile: Consistent ball-strikers with elite wedges and potential for hot putting rounds.

Strategy 2 — Separate on the Hard Holes

Find players who can steal birdies where most of the field is making pars or worse.

Key stat buckets:

  • Par 3 scoring from 225+ yards
  • Par 4 scoring from 450–500 yards
  • Proximity from 150–175 yards
  • Par 5 scoring from 600–650 yards

Ideal profile: High-ceiling players with volatility, distance, and the ability to post a 65 out of nowhere.

Other Factors to Consider

Spike Putting Rounds

If you have access to data on streaky putting performances, use it. You only need one or two hot putting rounds — especially on Saturday or Sunday — to win this contest.

Weather Edge

Monitor weekend tee times and forecasts. Morning waves with softer greens or less wind could create ideal birdie chances.

Betting Strategy: Chasing Value

At the top of the odds board, you’ll find the usual suspects — Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Bryson DeChambeau. They’ll be popular picks in this contest, and rightfully so. These are elite players with a strong chance of posting the most birdies or better over the weekend.

But here’s the catch — the more people who bet on the same player, the smaller the share of that $1,000,000 prize pool you’ll end up with. That’s why we’re taking a different approach.

If your goal is simply to maximize your chances of winning something, then Scheffler or Rory might make sense. But if you’re looking to extract real value, the play is to dig a little deeper down the board.

Let’s reframe how we think about this contest: your $5 outright bet isn’t just a wager for a player to win the US Open — it’s a ticket into a side competition. And in that competition, the only thing that matters is birdies or better in Rounds 3 and 4.

So when analyzing the board, I’m not only asking, “Can this guy win the US Open?” I’m more interested in “Can he make enough birdies on the weekend to top the leaderboard in this contest?”

A player might blow up with a triple bogey and fall out of contention for the tournament, but that doesn’t matter here. We don’t care about bogeys. We care about raw scoring upside — birdie-making potential when it counts most.

The key is identifying players with:

  • High birdie or better rates
  • A strong chance to make the cut
  • Low ownership in this specific contest

That’s where the edge lies. We’re not trying to be right about who wins the US Open — we’re trying to be right about who racks up birdies on Saturday and Sunday when most of the field has gone home.

Value Players to Target – Patrick Gates

Sam Burns

Sam Burns enters the U.S. Open off a frustrating playoff loss to Ryan Fox at the RBC Canadian Open, where his putter proved both a weapon and a weakness. After a stellar final round performance, Burns missed a short putt to win on the first playoff hole, then three-putted on the fourth, ultimately costing him the tournament.

Despite the disappointment, Burns has been playing consistently well. He’s finished T20 or better in five of his last six starts and is showing signs of a positive trend with his iron play. After going ten straight events without gaining strokes on approach, Burns has now done so in three consecutive starts—an encouraging sign as we head into a demanding week at Oakmont.

The strength of Burns’ game remains his putting, and when he finds a groove with the flat stick, he can rack up birdies in a hurry. He also has the distance off the tee to give himself manageable approaches on the longer holes. At the PGA Championship, Burns finished just four birdies off the top mark despite losing strokes on approach. If his recent improvements with the irons continue, he’s a legitimate contender in this DraftKings contest.

On top of that, Burns ranks 10th in Round 4 scoring average on the PGA TOUR this season—a valuable stat considering this competition hinges on performance over the weekend.

Sepp Straka

Sepp Straka hasn’t yet found his form in the majors this year, but outside of those high-profile starts, he’s quietly put together a stellar 2025 season. With two wins under his belt — at The American Express and the Truist Championship (hosted at Philadelphia Cricket Club) — Straka has shown he can contend and close.

He enters this week off a strong third-place finish at the Memorial, giving him a boost of momentum as he heads into Oakmont. Straka’s strength lies in his elite iron play. He may not overpower courses with distance, but he’s one of the most accurate drivers on TOUR — a key trait for positioning on Oakmont’s narrow and demanding fairways.

While his putter was inconsistent earlier in the year, he spiked in both of his wins, gaining +1.93 strokes putting at The American Express and +2.33 at the Truist. More importantly, he’s gained strokes on the greens in four consecutive events, a trend he hadn’t sustained since 2023. If the putter continues to cooperate, he’ll have plenty of birdie looks heading into the weekend.

What really stands out for this DraftKings promo is his weekend scoring ability. Straka ranks 5th in Round 3 scoring average and 18th in Round 4 scoring average on the PGA TOUR this season — exactly what we’re targeting for this contest. If he makes the cut, his birdie-making potential on Saturday and Sunday could easily put him in contention for the top prize.

Harris English

Harris English has quietly been one of the most consistent birdie-makers in major championships this season. At the Masters, he recorded 18 birdies, tying for 4th in the field. He matched that total at the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, where his 18 birdies were tied for 2nd. That kind of scoring upside is exactly what you’re looking for in a contest focused on weekend birdie totals.

He arrives at Oakmont in solid form, with three top-15 finishes in his last four starts, including a win earlier this year at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines — a long, demanding setup that shares some characteristics with Oakmont in terms of difficulty and shot-making requirements.

English’s game has been steady this season, with most of the week-to-week volatility coming on the greens. That said, when the putter clicks, he tends to contend. In the last five events where he’s gained strokes putting, he hasn’t finished worse than T18. That kind of spike potential makes him a strong candidate for this unique DraftKings contest. He may not need to contend for the trophy — just catch fire with the putter over the weekend.

Value Players to Target – Jake Sikus

Keegan Bradley

Shines on difficult golf courses tee to green. Top 20 in BoB% on difficult courses last 36 rounds.

Sam Burns

Can get hot with the putter at any moment and drop them in from anywhere. Driver has been fantastic as of late.

Tommy Fleetwood

Was born for the US Open. This isn’t a market that requires him to win the golf tournament and has a ton of history of weekend surges at major championships.

Final Thoughts

This DraftKings promo is a fun and strategic twist on outright betting. It rewards bold picks and sharp weekend analysis. Focus on players with scoring upside, weekend reliability, and the firepower to light up Oakmont’s few scoring windows. If they get hot at the right time, you could take home a share of the million.

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