Finally experienced the bad side of variance on Monday. Let’s get back to it on the hump.
Nuggets/Pacers OVER anything 235 or less, to win 1.5 units
Lots to like about points being scored in this contest. The Pacers are literally playing with pace, at one of the fastest tempos in the NBA over their last few games. They’ve also been really good in offensive rebounding and offensive efficiency. Same could be said for Denver. The Nuggets tend to follow the other team’s rhythm, particularly on the road, and I’m not sure either team will be interested in playing defense. The Pacers are 27th overall in DEF EFF over their last 7 games so, the evidence is there. OVER!
Raptors -10 or less, to win 1.5 units
These are the teams the Raptors absolutely destroy. If you look at similarly built teams, who like to run with pace but Toronto has a size and skill advantage (Spurs, Hawks), the Raptors have kicked the shit out of teams like that this season. The Houston Rockets qualify as that kind of team. With Pascal Siakam out a few weeks, young guns like Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby pick up the tab and step up to the plate better than most young players. This is a well-coached team that’s doing a lot of things right. They pass and facilitate their offense well, they get a ton of second-chance opportunities, and they’re 3rd in net rating the last 7 games. This has “blowout” written all over it, especially after Toronto’s road loss.
Pistons TT UNDER 205 or more, to win 1 unit
This is one hell of a spot for the Celtics, who are winning consistently and limiting good offenses consistently to boot, against a really bad offense on the road. This line is already up to -11.5 at some books as it’s opening. I’d lean Celtics but I’d rather grab the Pistons TT under.
