A few surprises and unexpected victors have us at 17-14 in March Madness picks thus far, which is pretty good considering all the volatility we’ve seen. I think it all kind of makes sense for me, though. In this strange COVID year, when you don’t have fans packing arenas, there’s just less pressure. This is really the only time we’ve seen these kids play under intense pressure, and now we’re getting a good idea of who can hang. It’s made for great entertainment, that’s for sure. On that note, the Elite 8 is here and the road to the championship is in plain view. Hear are my picks for today and tomorrow!
Oregon State 1st half only +4 (-105), 1.5 units: What the Oregon State Beavers have done so far in this tournament is truly remarkable. Flexing a defense that we haven’t seen during the regular season and shooting the ball extremely well, the Beavers have overcome Tennessee, Oklahoma State, and Loyola-Chicago; three of the toughest opponents that any team has had to contend with in the first 3 rounds. What they’ve done from the 3-point line might be the most shocking. Oregon State is holding tournament opponents to only 22% from beyond the arc. On their side, they’re shooting the long ball at a rate of 39%– not too shabby. I don’t care who you’re facing, when you’re out-shooting your opponents by that much disparity from beyond the arc, you’ll have a really hard time losing. But their efforts go beyond that, too. The Beavers have held their opponents, who all have exceptional offenses, to only 61 ppg. I think it helps that they run at one of the slowest paces in the country, a comparatively similar trait to Houston which we’ll discuss, and I think that can really throw off fluid offenses who depend on rhythm shooting. In that way, they make for a good match against Houston. The Cougars, like Oregon State, run their offense at a molasses-like tempo and usually really frustrate their foes in the process. Interestingly, Loyola-Chicago and Tennessee function the same way and we saw that result of those games against the 12th seeded Beavers. Houston has out-lasted their opponents in similar fashion: a pestering defense and great shooting. Though I must say I’m a little less impressed by their opponents. Their AAC title win over Memphis was great, but the reality is the Tigers weren’t good enough throughout the season to make the NCAA Tournament. In the postseason, the Cougars defeated Cleveland State, Rutgers and Syracuse. All solid teams, but not nearly the level of opponent that Oregon State has seen. The Beavers have a ton of momentum right now, which has only gained stream in these high-pressure games, and I see that carrying them to a first half cover. I can see Houston pulling away in the second half, they really do have an elite defense, but Oregon State is good enough to keep pace. No more resistance from me– I’ll take the Beavers early.
Arkansas/Baylor under 148.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This should be a fantastic game, despite the 8 point line favoring the Bears. Two of the most consistent teams in the nation meet late Monday night and I think it’s the defenses that flex the most. Let’s look at the pure numbers. Baylor has allowed only 59.6 ppg to their opponents and in those three tournament games, the totals have fell at an average of 128.6 ppg. Arkansas’ numbers are a little higher but still below average and support our case for the under here. The Razorbacks have allowed 68 ppg and their tournament games have an average total of 143 ppg. Arkansas is built around their defense, and despite the fact that they allowed more points overall thus far, every team they’ve faced was built on offensive prowess. I like the pace-war to favor the under here, too. Baylor isn’t Houston, they’re below-average in tempo but they don’t milk the clock on every possession, but they’re considerably more methodical than Arkansas. The Razorbacks, for their struggles at times on offense, love to push the ball and pour on points when given the chance. KenPom ranks them 17th in tempo for that reason. Unless its Gonzaga, who don’t seem to abide by any universal rules, I also love taking unders in the postseason when the pressure starts to mount. This game will be at the grandest environment at Lucas Oil stadium and the momentous nature and implications of every shot will be felt Monday night. Both of these teams have shot really well so far, each shooting well over 40%, so I can only project and expect negative regression in this contest. Bet the under.
