Well that was a rather putrid day for me yesterday. I had the right side with Oregon State but picked ’em in the wrong half. Baylor scored 15 points in the first 4 minutes, which basically destroyed my chances at a full game under right there. Ah well. I feel much better about today’s Elite 8 games– let’s get it!
Gonzaga -8.5 (-110), 2 units: Northwest takes on Southwest Tuesday in the first contest of the Elite 8 and there are 2 questions that define this game: 1) Can USC slow down arguably one of the best college basketball offenses of all time? 2) Can USC win the battle at the rim? If USC can step up and do well in either of those areas, they have a good chance at covering this line. Having said that, I think this line is still too small. At this point in the tournament, books have to respect all the teams who have gotten this far and what they’ve done to get there, so I get it. USC absolutely deserves the respect, but it doesn’t mean the line is right. Let’s look at what USC has done in the postseason and historically this year. Recently the Trojans look great– Haslametrics has USC ranked 21st in positive momentum and 6th overall in the country. They’ve also flexed their defensive-muscles big time in the tournament. The Trojans are only allowing 58 ppg in 3 games and they’re forcing very competent offenses into errors and uncomfortable shots. They slow down the game, annoy their opponent, and their hyper-efficient offense puts added pressure on teams to score. They’re also full of offensive talent. The Mobley brothers (Evan Mobley has to be considered one of the better big men in the country now) loom large at the rim, and 3 of USC’s guards have scored over 20 points in tournament play. It’s safe to say that USC should easily be the toughest test Gonzaga has had to face all year. And KenPom agrees. According to KenPom’s ratings, Gonzaga is 1st all time in 2 point offense and USC is 1st all time in 2 point defense, so it’ll be strength vs. strength on Tuesday night.
At this point I’m sure you’re thinking, “Well damn, Chris, aren’t you saying this is going to be a close game? You have to side with USC to cover then, right?” I hear you, but I can’t do that. As good as USC is, Gonzaga has only 1 win this entire season that wasn’t by double-digit margin. 1. They’re the consensus #1 team on offense and defense on Haslametrics. They’re #1 overall and #1 on offense according to KenPom (and 7th on defense, not exactly a weakness). And even though it doesn’t even make sense watching them sometimes, they always seem to find a way to out-think, out-play, and out-pace their opponents. USC should try to slow this game down, why wouldn’t they, but all plans go to shit when Gonzaga surges and scores 8-12 points in a row. And they do it very often. Look at any one of the ESPN summaries from a Gonzaga game this year and you’ll see drastic game-flow disparity at some point. Why? Because Gonzaga hangs around, hangs around, hangs around, and then pounces like a mountain lion. That’s what forces teams into mistakes and forces teams to play outside their comfort zone, and that’s where the Bulldogs really gain margin with their sharp and disciplined defense. USC, for all their accomplishments, has had bad moments in big games. They lost to Colorado 3 times, twice in ugly double-digit fashion and once in the Pac-12 tournament. They also lost to Utah and Oregon State and Arizona in the regular season, 3 of the more prominent offensive teams in the Pac-12. Gonzaga will by far be the most exceptional offense they’ve faced. I also think that Jalen Suggs, Gonzaga’s star guard who’s only reached double-digits once so far in the tournament, is due for some positive regression tonight. If the Mosley brothers cause problems, Gonzaga has dependable small-ball talent to overcome it.
There’s a ton of sentiment out there in the Twitter-verse and beyond at why USC is the team that could dethrone Gonzaga. Watch out for this line to fall even more and if it does, I know I’ll be investing more in this game. After all, I’m siding with the most consistent and talented juggernaut in the country.
Michigan 1st half -4 (-110), 2 units: After that small book I wrote above, I’ll spend less time on this one and get right to the point. The Wolverines have outplayed their opponents by an average margin of 10 points in the first halves of their tournament games so far. Don’t get me wrong– UCLA is built to stay within distance against their opponents. They don’t make mistakes, they move at a haunting but effectively slow tempo that throws opponents off, and they shoot the ball very well. Unfortunately, they just haven’t faced a team like Michigan this year. The Wolverines are bigger, stronger, more talented at the rim and as jump-shooters, and also play at a methodical pace. That won’t be effected or thrown off by what the Bruins try to do to other teams. Expect Hunter Dickinson and his wrecking-ball crew to hit the paint hard and deliberate throughout the first half of this contest. Michigan, like Gonzaga, likes to out-perform their opponents from the onset to throw off the other team’s game-plan. UCLA, although talented and well-coached, will not be ready for this level of competition. Remember, this is a team who finished 4th in the Pac-12 and had to play in a “First Four” contest just to make the tournament. Despite the Pac-12’s performance so far in postseason play, there’s still a real difference between Michigan and most of these other teams. I like the Wolverines to cover this full game but I favor the first half even more.
