Well we have arrived at Conference Championship weekend. I know four fan bases and anyone holding future(s) tickets on these four teams are stoked! The only unfortunate thing would be, football only has three total games left!
I’m going to break down my plays and how I plan on approaching C.C. weekend.
49ers at Eagles -2 1/2 (O/U 46)
Most of my action is going to come in the early time slot(3:00 Eastern), yes, the Eagles have been statistically one of the best teams in the NFC for most of the season and were still undefeated the 2nd week of November. With that said, I think last week’s devastation of the New York football Giants is slightly an overreaction. They dominated in every facet of the game, but the same thing happened back in Week 14. The Giants weaknesses are the Eagles strengths, they don’t match up with them and lets be honest there at a huge deficit talent wise. Of Philly’s last six games, three, yes three have come against the Giants. Which leads me to, who have they have faced this season outside of their division schedule? The remaining 11 games they faced two playoff teams(Min and Jax). The Vikings in my opinion are their SIGNATURE win, beating Cousins in a Prime-time match up on MNF at home nonetheless, yikes. I’m not sitting here saying strength of schedule is everything, but I think it should be taken into deep consideration that they haven’t faced a juggernaut like the 49ers yet! This leads to the SF side of things, no they haven’t had the most ferocious schedule either, but they have most surely faced more quality teams(Kc, Lac, Mia). Travel much? Their sky-miles did not get very high in 2022. Since Oct 23rd they have traveled to Mexico, Seattle, Las Vegas and LA, all under an hour plane rides. Only three true road games in that span. They are RESTED, I think that will play a huge factor in the 2nd Half Sunday.
Defense’s good vs the run has been the difference in the playoffs so far, but hey that is most years right? SF run D is 2nd in the league at 3.4 yards per rush, which is Sirianni’s bread and butter. They attack teams on the ground and counter with a threatening play action, then Hurts gets to do as he pleases. Without their run game, Hurts wont have an empty canvas to do as he wants. The play making will come down to him stepping up in the pocket and making plays vs SF’s dominant pass rush. I believe over the course of the game, he will ‘tuck it and run’ quite a few times, almost somewhat panicking. Especially, if they are behind ‘The SF defense has 9 INT’s in the last 5 games, if they can steal a few possessions and keep Philly’s offense off the field for large amounts of time they will have a hard time putting up big numbers. Which leads to the Philly run D, they are 24th in the league at 4.7 yards per rush. Shanahan has to be licking his chops hearing those stats! McCaffery, Mitchell and maybe even a Mason sighting are going to have a field day running the ball down their throats. I’m expecting big clock control for SF keeping Hurts and company on the sideline.
Ultimately, I think this will be a boxing match, I see the Eagles throwing the first haymaker, BUT when Purdy is ‘still standing’ LOOK-OUT!
49ers +2 1/2 (3 units)
Hurts over 47 1/2 rush yards (1.5 units)
Leans: Look to live bet SF if PHI has an early lead.
Bengals at Chiefs +1 1/2 (O/U 47)
With all the uncertainty with Mahomes and the ankle injury, I’m staying away from the side and total in this game, but I have a few props I really like!
Joe Mixon was turned loose in the Buffalo game, we have seen that a few times this year. Most fans remember the Carolina game when he scored 5 total TD’s. He got a ‘freshening’ in early December with a knee injury when he missed two weeks. Last week vs Buffalo he looked stronger than ever and he faces a defense that has NOT been good vs the run. The last 9 weeks, KC has given up almost 120 yards a game vs the run.
There were staggering holes last week vs Jacksonville, and I don’t see that changing Sunday!
Mixon over 58 1/2 rush yards (1.25 units)
Mixon Alternate Line over 79 1/2 rush yards +154 (0.5 unit)
Butker over 1 1/2 Field Goals -139 (0.75 unit)
Leans: Mixon Alternate Line over 99 1/2 rush yards +395 (0.25 unit)
Good luck to everyone playing the games this weekend- Eric Rocco
