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What happened in Game One?
Well this isn’t an easy answer. After an insane performance by Steph Curry in the 1st quarter, where he went 6/6 from beyond the arc and exploded with 21 points, the Warriors deflated and Curry went cold in the 2nd. Stuff like that is rather hard to predict. Boston, as they tend to do, slowly regained their footing on both offense and defense and ended up leading at the half. Golden State blew the doors off again in the 3rd, outscoring Boston 38-24 and taking a commanding 14-point lead heading into the final 12 minutes.
And then the Chase Center was shook. Marcus Smart, Derrick White, and Al Horford (of all players) led a melee of offense in the 4th quarter, completely annihilating the home team by a margin of 40-16 in the final period. Those same three players combined for 15/23 from 3-point land. Golden State, who I think most would agree is the objectively better pure shooting team, couldn’t hit a bucket during the same span, and they had plenty of open looks.
Boston has amazing mental aptitude in these late-game situations. We’ve seen it multiple times before in the playoffs and they showed it with ferocity again in the 4th quarter of game one. The Warriors were also consistently challenged. Klay Thomson and Steph and Andrew Wiggins had decent enough shooting nights, but nothing came easy. Draymond Green took WAY too many shots (and WAYYYY too many threes), while Boston’s length and physicality started to dominate in the game’s most trying moments. Amazingly, Jason Tatum was only 3-17 from the field, but his 13 assists and contributions from his supporting cast (Jaylen Brown, stand up) is just more proof that Tatum doesn’t always need to be spectacular for the Celtics to blow away opponents.
Areas where we expect regression:
- It’s very unlikely that Smart, Horford, and White will continue to average the same marks from beyond the arc. I promise.
- It’s very unlikely that Curry will keep disappearing in the 2nd/4th quarters.
- It’s very unlikely that Tatum will only average 12 points, nor is it likely that he will average over 10 assists.
- It’s very unlikely that Draymond Green continues to shoot over 2.5 threes per game. It’s also very likely that Draymond commands the offense better. He only had 5 assists.
- It’s unlikely that Boston will beat Golden State in 3-point shooting at any point during this series. If they do it’ll be night night, Dub City.
Areas where we expect things to remain the same:
- Marcus Smart is a REALLY good basketball player. Both on defense AND on offense, Smart has become an elite point guard and he should not be understated.
- Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins can hold the Warriors’ offense alive when Steph is off the floor and/or when Steph goes cold. These are two exceptional shooters and both looked poised and un-phased under the bright lights.
- Kevon Looney will continue to play a central role in the Warriors’ success. His tenacity and effort in grabbing offensive rebounds has been sensational.
- Robert Williams III may not blow you away in his stats, but he’s as legit a defender as it gets. The small guards of Golden State cannot and will not find ways to shoot over him in the paint as long as he’s roaming.
- Al Horford and Derrick White are in a flow-state, and we don’t see that ending anytime soon. Something special is going on with these two veteran players, who are clearly happy and 100% ready to win a title for Boston. I see no signs of negative regression.
Game 2 market analysis:
- It feels like books are trying to “bait us” by listing the Golden State Warriors as -4 to -4.5 favorites. That’s a ton of points, even at home, against this Boston Celtics team; and clearly there’s no quit in Ime Udoka’s squad. Still, the Warriors, at home, answering the call after a loss? That feels extremely likely with their experience and leadership.
- The total came out around 215 and we think that’s very sharp. Golden State should continue to push the pace and both teams have exceptional defenses that thrive at converting turnovers into points. I wouldn’t be surprised if it flew over once again.
Keys for each team to win:
- The Warriors CANNOT allow the Celtics to be that efficient from the perimeter. Golden State’s interior defense is underrated and capable and they need to respect the proven shooting talent of Boston. Take the Celts off-rhythm and the game will change – it’s much harder to take Steph/Klay/Poole/Wiggins out of their rhythm at home.
- The Celtics don’t need to do much differently. Their defensive effort never waned, they never threw in the towel, they had contributors across their roster, and their poise on the road was exceptional. Imagine if Tatum had a great game? That’s really the only thing they need. If I’m Boston, I expect negative regression from my ancillary players and I feed Tatum early and often to set the tone.
Best Bet: Well this is a tough one and it seems too obvious, but I would look to take the Celtics in the first half (+3) and then play-back on Golden State in the 3rd quarter.
In the same vein, if/when Golden State explodes in the 3rd period and you get over 5 points on Boston live for the full game, I would consider that, too. Both of these units showed their personalities in game one; the Celtics are young, hungry, physical, and they never quit. The Warriors are magic when they’re in-rhythm but they’re quickly overwhelmed when they lose that fluidity. Still, I can’t imagine the Warriors getting blown out in the 4th quarter like that again. There’s too much proof that they can adjust as good as any franchise in the NBA.
