And then there were 4! Maybe not the fantastic, fabulous 4 we imagined, but the “Final Four” nonetheless. Hopefully up until this point you’ve read the countless articles I’ve written on the NCAA Tournament games and/or you’ve listened to the OddsBreakers many podcasts on the same subject matter. Because of that I won’t get into as much statistical depth today but I feel great about these angles. Here are my plays:
Houston +5.5 (-115), 1.5 units: I love that Baylor is in the Final Four. At times during the regular season, the Baylor Bears looked, to me, like the most dominant team in the nation. Locked in and disciplined and highly talented on both sides of the court, Baylor looked unbeatable for long stretches. Then COVID hit the Bears, as it did so many basketball teams, and it created some real advertsity for the country’s then #2 team. Baylor stumbled a little, lost 2 games, and struggled to beat teams that they likely would have dominated before the interruption. I said it way back in the beginning of March that I like teams that face some adversity before the tournament starts. I don’t think Baylor would have looked as effective in the tournament if they didn’t have that dip in performance in late February. It was a reawakening, and kids of that age probably need a little recalibration to stay supremely consistent and dominant (unless you’re Gonzaga, apparently). But you could say the same things about Houston. The Cougars had a game postponed, and then cancelled. They had a few clunkers, losing to far inferior teams like Tulsa, East Carolina and Wichita State. But since late February, no team (again, except Gonzaga) has been more consistent than the Houston Cougars. Regardless of their opponent in the AAC or in the postseason, Houston finds a way to slow the game down with their 328th ranked tempo (KenPom), they seemingly never go on scoring droughts, and their defense will challenge and pester their foe throughout 40 minutes of play. We’ve seen teams get oh so close (Memphis, Rutgers, Oregon State) but the Cougars never panic. The team is built as consistent as they play– they have no player over 6’8″ but they have 6 different players who are listed right at 6’8″ and they know how to play big in the front court. They also have dynamic guards and veteran leadership who don’t shy away from big moments.
In short, I’m incredibly impressed by both of these units. They’re among the most steady, well-coached, and effective teams in the nation on offense and defense and to me, nothing says this will be a blowout in either direction. I’ll take the dog for a healthy 5.5 units to cover this line, and I damn sure wouldn’t be surprised by an upset.
UCLA/Gonzaga under 145.5 (-110), 2 units: The line (Gonzaga -14.5) and total is telling us that this game will end with a final score of 80-65 in favor of the Bulldogs. I think that’s wrong and here’s why: this contest will go one of two ways. 1) Somehow someway the Bruins find a way to slow down an offense no one else has and that drastically effects the overall total. UCLA then covers and it falls well below 145.5 in the midst of a nerve-racking, defensive effort. UCLA isn’t going to cover and have a chance to win this game by keeping pace with Gonzaga. No team has shown an ability to do that, regardless of how good their shooters are. The Bruins are built by not making mistakes, slowing down the pace (338th on KenPom), playing really solid defense and then making the shots that count. Gonzaga is one of the fastest teams in the country and as you’ve seen so many times, they live (not love, LIVE) to boat-race their foe and force them out of their comfort zone. If UCLA can stay within their comfort zone, this total falls under. 2) The other possible result of this game is probably the more likely one– Gonzaga indeed boat-races UCLA with their 6th paced tempo and electric scoring ability. In that case you’d think it might favor an over. I don’t think so. Just like the last contest (which fell under a total of 153), the Bulldogs have shown that they’ll slow down a little bit if they have a huge lead. They also put an extra clamp down on defense– it wasn’t easy for USC to score at any point Tuesday. If they have a huge lead, Mark Few has to be thinking about the biggest game of the year in just 2 short days, too. Could he rest players in the 2nd half? Could he put in players who never get a chance to shine? It’s all possible and it all favors the under.
I find it hard to imagine that UCLA can get to 65 points against this elite Gonzaga defense that constantly flies under the radar (and understandably so) because of how mystifying they are on the other end of the court. Nerves and postseason intensity included, I’m on the under for 2 units.
