I encourage you to take a look at a first half ATS play in the St. Joe’s Davidson matchup. Currently, Davidson is a 10 point favorite and the first half line has them favored by 5.5.
St. Joe’s comes into conference play ranking 12th in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Davidson has the 3rd ranked offensive efficiency in the conference and ranks 2nd in defensive efficiency. This alone should make Davidson look attractive. Add to those mismatches the fact that St. Joe’s inefficient offense has 5th fasted average possession length (tempo) and Davidson ranking 12th in the same category, I think you have a great combination of formulas that translates to St. Joe’s getting minimal FG opportunities, not converting them, and being unable to stop Davidson from scoring.
Comparing tempo with offensive efficiency isn’t the end of the handicap here. I took a look at raw scoring numbers in the first half and compared them from a road/home split perspective. St. Joe’s averages 30 points on the road in the first half. Davidson holds opponents to 30 points at home in the first half. Statistically similar numbers gains my confidence in their predictability. Conversely, St. Joe’s is surrendering 39 ppg on the road, and Davidson is averaging 37 ppg at home. Add the efficiency and tempo statistics to these stats, I believe there is a reason to predict that Davidson is likely to score near or higher than St. Joe’s defensive road points against. Averaging the two, we have a potential that Davidson is up by around 8 points at the half, making the 5.5 number attractive.
I like the first half play tonight because I think that Davidson has the right combination to get up early in this game. Second half adjustments, or big leads turning into minimal motivation, mixed with a Friday night low-key game, the first half appears more attractive to me than the full game.
PLAY: Davidson -5.5 First Half
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