It’s Florida Derby Day, what horse racing fans don’t love today! Maybe I’m biased as I live in Florida, but it is most definitely one of my favorite days of the year. My article today will provide all of my top plays for each race I’m playing, roughly how much I’m betting on each play and a few multi race bets. I will even throw in a few exotics!
Yes, Forte is the biggest topic of discussions throughout the racing world, hopefully I uncovered a few ways to make some money with him. For anyone not in the MAGE camp, maybe you should join me. More on the FL derby later in the article!
14 races on tap today, the 1st two are wide open Maidens, MSW and MOC. I will be passing on these, and focusing on the remaining 12! There is an early and late Pick 5, an early, middle and late Pick 4 and the 20c Pick 6 on the last 6 races. I will skip all the early ones, have a small play for the middle Pick 4 and then zero in on all the late ones. Let’s dive right in!
Race 3: Cutler Bay Stakes, for 3yo’s, going 7 ½ on the GRASS
Top Play: #8 KINGS FORTUNE, Irad-Pletcher, ML 4-1
He won debut on the poly, scratched off the turf. Irad had a strangle hold most of the race and he exploded in the stretch. Dam was a stake winner, combined with out of Bolt d’oro he should have no problem running on the grass. The way he exploded, will fit perfectly for a big grass run. There is a lot of early lick in this race, so the pace should be honest.
Play: Strong WIN bet here!
Singling the 8 in all multi’s.
Race 4: AOC n1x, 4yo’s and up, going a 1 turn Mile on the Dirt
Top Play: #9 BRIGHT FUTURE, Irad-Pletcher, ML 2-1
Yes we are going with Irad and TP again, he was a debut winner at GP last winter meet, then ran 3rd as a beaten favorite at Belmont in June and Todd gave him the rest of the year off. This is most likely an easy spot for him here, he will be odds on, don’t be surprised if goes off at 3-5. I will also be using the 1 GIANT GAME, Edgar Perez-Romans, ML 9-2. He recovered after an awkward start last out, the stretch to 1 mile helped this horse tremendously. Today is 3rd off the layoff, another improvement puts him right near the winners circle, if not in it.
PLAY: Ex 9-1 x3, 1-9 x1, and a small win bet on the #1.
Using the 1 and 9 in all multi’s, make sure you double or triple up on the 9 in smaller tickets, due to lack of price.
Race 5: Pan American, for older horses, going 1 ½ on the GRASS
Top Play: #7 ABAAN, Rosario-Pletcher, ML 5-1
I’m sure many landed on this horse due to his success at GP. If he can get back to old form and get loose on the lead, watch out. Whether that happens is another story. The jockey’s change from Saez to Rosario will for sure be an interesting dynamic, Saez has always sent this horse, and we all know Joel’s style of riding. I’ll be playing this race very carefully, and probably small wagers. The #3, MASTER PIECE looks tough and adds blinkers, but will be odds on. I’m not a big fan when Saffie adds blinkers, so we will see.
Play: Small win bet on #7, and an exacta box 3,7 x2 and 2,7 once.
Using the 3 and 7 in multi’s and maybe a few savers with the 2.
Race 6: MSW, for 3yo fillies, going 1 Mile on the TURF
Top Play(s): #3 GOOD VALUE, Perez-De La Cerda ML 6-1 AND #11 EVERY TIME J. Ortiz-Mott, ML 8-1
I’m split on this race, both will offer a good price, so let’s play both horses here. Very tough MSW, there are a ton of ways to go.
The #3 drew the outside post debut, was wide in the turn, then got slammed into turning home and still ran on well. The horses that out finished her got away 1-2 and finished 1-2. Claiming off of Chad Brown I usually wouldn’t recommend, but he claimed her off debut, so I would assume he had some good information. Hope for improvement. Now the #11 was in the K. Brion barn, and ran great as a 2 year old on the grass. Now at Bill Mott’s barn, they gave her a freshener off of the layoff going 6F on the dirt, drew the 1 hole, missed the break and got shuffled. She has been sprinting so she could be the controlling speed, with Jose being super aggressive out of the gate, possible wire to wire winner here.
Play: Average bet, Win and Place on the #3, as well as a win bet on the #11.
Using the 3 and 11 in multi’s.
Race 7: Ghostzapper, for older horses, going 1 1/16 on the dirt
Top Play: #4 O’CONNOR, Irad-Saffie, ML 3-1
The Chilean bred absolutely galloped in his U.S. debut, came back in the Harlan’s Holiday and ran a well beaten 4th. Toss out the Pegasus. I believe he sits a perfect trip off of his brother on the #1. Break, rush a little and sit the garden trip, imagine the Preakness all over again just switch brothers. Make his electric middle move and draw off. Well that’s all in theory. This is by far a tough race, but I think he gets first move on the ‘better’ horses here.
Play: Good size win bet on the #4, I’m strong in this race!
Singling the 4 in all multi’s.
Race 8: Orchid, older F+M’s, going 1 ½ on the TURF
Top Play: #2 MISS YEARWOOD, Landeros-Wilkes, ML 10-1
This filly can run for days, based on her breeding 11 furlongs will be right up her alley. She will need to improve from her 3yo to 4yo campaign, but Landeros has shipped in just to ride her it looks like, so let’s put our trust in Chris here. If we can get some early pace, she will be rolling late. Based on her recent bullet drill at Palm Meadows, she is tight and ready to run. She got a race in her last month off the layoff, which I believe puts her on a monster run today!
Play: Win and Place #2, don’t be shy with this bet. Could get a monster payoff.
For multi’s, I would spread here, could be a price if it’s not her.
Race 9: Sir Shackelton, older horses, going 7 furlongs on the dirt
Top Play: #4 Weyburn, J. Ortiz-Jerkens, ML 7-2
I’m all over Weyburn here, this horse loves GP and loves 7F(4 starts, 2 wins, 2 places, lifetime best #). This horse is very tactical, can run off the pace, or near the lead. It will be up to Jose where he wants to put him. He completely missed the break first off the layoff since August, and still ran on for a strong 2nd to fan favorite, White Abarrio. He won this race last year off of the pace, and with all the early lick signed on here, I’ll be expecting a similar performance to last year’s victory.
Play: LOVE, Strong WIN bet, #4!
Single in all multi’s.
Race 10: Sand Springs, older F+M’s, going 1 1/16 on the TURF
Top Play: #9 Preservancia, Leparoux-Devaux, ML 5-1
One of the tougher, more interesting races on this card. If you know Julien you know exactly how this race will play out. Break slow, rangle to the back and make one big move late. Fortunately for us, I believe that’s what it will take to win here. A ton of early speed in this race and middle movers. I see a horse coming over the top and winning in the stretch run. The only knack is 1 1/16 to short for her? Her better races have come at 11 furlongs, but she has won going 1 1/16 as well. If the pace is honest, she will get her shot to go by late. C’mon Julien!
Play: Average bet, Win and Place #9, exacta box 6,9.
I’ll be using the 6 and 9 in multi’s.
Race 11: Sanibel Island, 3yo fillies, going 7 ½ on the TURF
*****Top Play: #9 AUNT SHIRLEY, Irad-Pletcher, ML 6-1
This is my best bet of the entire card! WinStar has a monster and she has her coming out party today! Moving from Brisset to TP’s barn is already an improvement. She won debut, running down stakes winner Twice As Sweet, then bounced in the Spinaway at the Spa getting a wide trip. 2 turns on the Turf is just what the doctor ordered. Her pedigree screams LONG and grass. She’s out of Justify, by a dam called Ambroisa. Tons of turn in her bloodlines. Can we get anywhere near 6-1, doubtful. I will be unloading her here though!
Play: WIN bet, #9.
Singled in everything!
Race 12: GP Oaks, 3yo fillies, going 1 1/16 on the dirt
Top Play: #4 AFFIRMATIVE LADY, Saez-Motion, ML 10-1
This 400k OBS purchase out of Arrogate, has relished going 2 turns. She ran 2nd in the Demoisel at Aqueduct in January, beaten a neck going 1 ⅛. They cut her back to 1 1/16 two turns at GP 4 weeks ago in a MSW, and added blinkers. Alvarado got her locked in, she then exploded late! The number came back slightly low, but not to worry. Amo racing Usa, has nothing but runners in their barn. She’s out of a dam called Stiffed, who ran very well going long on the dirt. I expect a nice pace set up today, they could be rolling up front early!
Play: I’m very strong here, a nice size win and place on #4!
In the multi’s I’ll be using 4,6,7.
Race 13: Appleton, older horses, going 1 Mile on the TURF
Top Play: #3 GRAYS FABLE, Rosario-Lynch, ML 10-1
I landed on the classy 8yo gelding here. He cherishes running 1 Mile, with a record of 5 wins, 2 places and 2 shows, in just 13 races. Winner of this race 2 years ago, this horse made a complete 180 this past summer in running styles. Mostly an on/near the lead type of horse, has been coming from way back to end his 7yo campaign. Not common for older horses. Rosario got on last month at GP, and kind of got stuck on the rail to run on for 2nd. Loving the inside draw today with all the early speed in this race, Joel will be able to save ground then pave his way through at some point. This horse is so tactical, who even knows where he gets away. Can we get anywhere near 10-1, you never know, but regardless will be a juicy price!
Play: Strong Win and Place on the #3, and an exacta box 3-6.
In the multi’s i’ll be using 3 and 6.
Race 14: FLORIDA DERBY, 3yo’s, going 1 ⅛ on the dirt
Top Play: #4 Mage, Saez-G. Delgado, 10-1
Are they beating Forte here, most likely not, but I believe Mage can give him a run for his money! This 3 yo out of Good Magic completely missed the break in the FOY, now Castellano is off and the dangerous Saez signs on.
Play: #4 Win and place, exacta 11-4 x5, 4-11 once.
In the multi’s i’ll be using the 4 and 11, but make sure you multiple tix on the 11!
Good luck everyone and make some money!
