Through 1 week of the CFB season, I sit at 5-6, -0.82u. Not a breakout start, but can’t wait to get back at it in Week 2. Last year in CFB, I hit at a 55% clip and netted +27.35u.
I won’t have a play in either of the standalone games here on Sunday or Monday, but since I know these games will be heavily bet, I wanted to pass along my thoughts.
Florida State vs LSU(-4) O/U 51.5–Sunday 9/4; 6:30 PM CT
This is a pseudo-home game for LSU being that it’ll be played at the SuperDome in New Orleans.
I played Florida State OVER 6.5 wins and think this ‘Noles team is set for a breakout season. QB Jordan Travis is a dynamic player that is now 6-2 as the starter dating back to last season(they went 0-5 without him in 2021). Not only did has he run for over 500 yards in each of the past 2 seasons, but he also has thrown for a respectable 8.1 Y/A throughout his career. Perhaps the biggest improvement Mike Norvell made this offseason was in his WR corps. Micah Pittman was the obvious addition, but Norvell now has a slew of long WR’s that will turn “50-50” balls into “70-30” balls. The RB room is deep and, paired with Travis’s ability as a runner, could be the most established part of this offense. The OL will set the tone in the run game but will have their hands full facing off with LSU’s pass rush.
I’m in total wait-and-see mode on LSU. Bringing in Brian Kelly was great and all, but to think that lone addition will translate into immediate success is short-sided. This has been the most disappointing program in CFB each of the past 2 seasons, and there are still a lot of moving parts on this Tigers roster. It appears Jayden Daniels will receive the first snaps at QB tonight, and I agree with that move. Daniels holds a career 8.4 Y/A, 32 TD vs 12 INT, and also added over 1200 yards on the ground at Arizona State. While I don’t think LSU’s OL is “bad”, that unit is still not solidified up to the standards LSU fans would like. In addition, I have my worries about LSU’s running game. John Emery Jr is still suspended to start the season, and what did Noah Cain do at Penn State(right around 4 YPC) to make me think he can take on the lead back role? Florida State is stout in both their interior DL and at that LB spot. Thankfully, Daniels has a difference-making WR at his disposal in the form of Kayshon Boutte. There is a lot of hype around LSU’s other complementary WR’s, but I’ll need to see it on this big stage to believe it. Florida State’s secondary is perhaps the strength of their D, so Boutte likely won’t be able to carry the load alone.
I believe it’s true that LSU could step up in this season opener and still disappoint overall this season, perhaps on a pretty large scale. I still have a financial investment on this game given my Florida State season win total bet, but I don’t have a good enough feel on LSU to play this game. I lean towards Florida State and the Over, but I won’t get to the window with either of those.
Clemson(-23.5) vs Georgia Tech O/U 50.5–Monday 9/5; 7 PM CT
You could’ve gotten Clemson at 20.5 here pretty recently, so you probably missed your best opportunity to back the Tigers. However, maybe you dodged a bullet. I personally couldn’t make a case to lay almost 4 possessions with a team that was as putrid as they were on the offensive side of the ball last year. If you’re rebuttal is, “Oh, well it’s Georgia Tech”… consider that Clemson escaped with a narrow 14-8 win AT HOME against this same Yellow Jackets team last season.
I’m of the belief that QB DJ Uiagalelei will not be Clemson’s starter by season’s end. DJ didn’t just have a bad game, a bad few games, or a bad month; he had an atrocious 2021 season(55% completion, 6 Y/A, 9 TD vs 10 INT). Dabo Swinney clearly didn’t feel great about his QB depth last season, but the import of 5-star freshman Cade Klubnik has shortened Uiagalelei’s leash. Clemson’s frontline WR’s are good, but at the end of the day, this passing game will go as far as the QB allows it. This should be a Clemson offense that pounds the ground game; Will Shipley had a solid freshman campaign(5 YPC, 11 TD’s). The OL returns 4 starters and improved mightily throughout the course of last season.
Geoff Collins is Year 4 into his rebuild at Georgia Tech, yet he still has many of the same problems as he did when he arrived. While his LB corps is the strength of his defense and the secondary has high hopes, I do think Clemson’s OL will be able to win that matchup with Georgia Tech’s front 4 pretty handily. GT quarterback Jeff Sims has shown flashes throughout his 1st 2 years on campus, but a 57% career completion percentage plus a 25:20 TD/INT ratio doesn’t inspire much confidence. The Yellow Jackets lost their best player in RB Jahmyr Gibbs to Alabama, and they will have to rely on a plethora of young, unproven WR’s. Even worse, their OL projects to be the weakness of the offense once again. Clemson is banged up defensively and lose their longtime DC Brent Venables, but it’s hard to see them struggling too much against this offense.
Clemson could win this game convincingly and yet still have many of last year’s issues rear their ugly heads throughout the course of this season. This is not a game I would recommend playing.
