College football is well under way heading into the 4th week of games. We have a good one here on Thursday night between West Virginia and Virginia Tech.
West Virginia comes into this game with a 1-2 record losing to Pitt and Kansas to start off the year before beating Towson last week. Virginia Tech comes in with a 2-1 record. They had a disappointing opening week loss to Old Dominion, but have bounced back with back to back wins against Boston College and Wofford.
This game will pit West Virginia’s strength (offense) against Virginia Tech’s strength (defense). West Virginia is averaging 46 points per game and 513 total yards of offense. Virginia Tech is only giving up an average of 12.3 points per game and 201 total yards of offense. On the flip side, West Virginia’s defense is giving up 33.3 points per game and 327 yards of offense. Virginia Tech’s offense comes in averaging 23.7 points per game on 364 yards of total offense. The question will be who’s strength prevails?
Average stats only give so much information though. Neither of these team’s have faced that stiff of competition. Pitt was ranked 17th when West Virginia played them. Pitt has since fallen to 24th after losing to Tennessee and will probably fall further, even though they have a relatively easy schedule.
Let’s dive into another topic everyone loves. Trends.
Virginia Tech gets this game at home with revenge. They lost last year at West Virginia by 6 points. Virginia tech is currently 3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these teams, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. If we look a little deeper, Virginia Tech off a win in the dog role is 23-16 ATS. This improves to 17-8 ATS when they’re off back to back wins. As a dog with revenge, Virginia Tech is 13-6 ATS.
When we look at West Virginia, those trends don’t look as great. Off a win as a favorite they’re 42-54 ATS and off a double digit win as a favorite they’re 33-40 ATS. West Virginia is also 41-42 ATS against revenge as a favorite and 27-28 against non-conference teams as a favorite.
But buyer beware, trends can also be a bit deceiving at times like most statistics.
West Virginia going back on the road after back to back home games. They lost to Pitt on the road and Kansas at the beginning of their home stand. Wofford getting blown out doesn’t surprise or impress me. West Virginia needs their offense to start fast since their defense is mediocre at best. I think that’s going to be hard for them going up against the best defense in Virginia Tech that they’ve faced this year.
I look for Virginia Tech to come out and set a physical tone in this one early. They haven’t played in any high scoring games this year thanks to their defense. If they can get the ball rolling on the ground early, that will open up the passing game for them a bit here. This will also be the best offense Virginia Tech’s defense has seen so far this year.
The old adage has always been defense travels. I’m not so sure if West Virginia’s offense can travel here into Blacksburg and have their way against this defense, even though it’s only about 4 hours between these two towns. I like this to be a lower scoring game, which I believe will benefit Virginia Tech here as they should be able to control time of possession with their run game and force West Virginia to have to make plays against their defense.
Give me Virginia Tech +3 -125 for 1U.
