Hey all! If you have been tailing my OB plays this season, you know that the last couple were on the losing side. Saying that, we are season at 46-35 (57%) this season in College Football and I have decided to give out one of my top plays this week instead of a lower tier play! Best of luck if you tail!
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The Texas State Bobcats travel to Alabama to take on the South Bama Jaguars on Saturday. The Bobcats enter 3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS and 4-5 o/u while the Jags enter 7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS and 5-4 o/u. Texas State has been averaging just 4.5 yards per play offensively against defenses giving up an average of 5.5 YPP and there defense is giving up 5.3 YPP, which is the same number of their opponents offenses. On the other side of the field, South Alabama has been gaining 6 YPP against defenses giving up 5.8 YPP and are giving up just 4.9 YPP against offenses averaging 5.6 YPP. These are 2 of the slower paced teams in the conference, ranking 7th and 12th in tempo and have the same ranking for totals plays run in conference play. According to PFF, Texas State enters this contest as the 5th highest rated defense in the nation while South Bama is no slouch, ranking 40th. Big plays will come at a premium at this one with those defenses ranking 2nd and 3rd in the Sun Belt while the offenses rank 7th and 13th in accumulating plays of 30 yards or more. This will be a very similar matchup for South Alabama to when they played the Ragin Cajuns of Louisiana. That game ended with the Jaguars coming out on top 20-17. Another comparable game for the Jags was against Troy, where the score ended up 10-6. I fully expect this game to be under 45 points in this one.
Take Under 47.5 (good down to 45.5)
