Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees
Going back to the well today with the Yankees, but in a different way. The Yankees have gotten off to slow starts lately against inferior opponents and have even lost. I can’t trust them, even with the epic comeback last night.
I’m going to isolate Nestor Cortes here. He has been lights out at home allowing just 10 runs in 8 starts. He holds a 1.90 home ERA, Opp BA of .168, Opp OBP .239, Opp SLG .269 and wOBA .231. He’s also striking out 28.8% of hitters, allowing .223 BABIP with a 2.72 FIP and 3.46 xFIP. He’s been getting a little bit lucky considering the difference in the FIP and xFIP, but I think the home dominance continues here against a poor Kansas City team. His hard hit contact rate is also down at home, and has been way down to start the second half.
While these advanced metrics haven’t meant much in a lot of plays recently, I think this one holds more weight as Cortes has proved all year, and with his recent starts, he’s one of the best in the American League.
For some additional analysis, if you want to consider the game last night, Cole has been up and down all year. That showed in his start last night. He was cruising until the 5th inning where he gave up 5 runs. He got the first 2 outs and then gave up 4 singles and a home run before finally getting the third out. I don’t think we see that out of Cortes here. I think he’ll be able to contain this lineup.
Last time out at Kansas City, Cortes gave up 2 runs (1 earned) in 5 innings back in April. That was when the Royals had some more pop in their lineup as well. Granted it was the beginning of the season, but the Royals haven’t gotten better since then. Even with Merrifield and Perez in the lineup (which I would expect them to be as they were last night) that’s about the extent of guys that will do damage. I don’t see Garcia having another 3 for 4 game here.
I think this is the best value on the card for today. Personally I have this line somewhere closer to -175, so I’m going to take advantage of the implied probability.
Take Nestor Cortes U2.5 Earned Runs -115 2U
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