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Grizzlies Team Total over 123.5 (-115), 1.5 units: Two short nights ago, the surging Grizzlies took on the Celtics, in Boston, and were introduced to one of the more viable and legitimate defenses they’ve seen in a long time. Boston stuffed the Grizzlies at the rim over and over again, forcing Memphis into uncomfortable perimeter shots. While the Grizzlies are a great all-around team and one of the most productive offenses in the NBA, they’re not particularly gifted beyond the arc. After that humbling loss, superstar Ja Morant and the Western Conference’s 3rd best team heads back home to face the Orlando Magic. The Magic are fresh off a surprising win, on the road, at Toronto. The Raptors have their own slate of problems right now, but the Magic have a formidable offense with skilled, developing shooters. What the Magic rarely bring to the table? Formidable defense. Before we get into more intangibles and psychology, let’s look at some data.
- Grizzlies’ season offensive efficiency rating: 5th
- Magic season defensive efficiency rating: 20th
- Pace: Orlando, 10th; Grizzlies, 8th
- Grizzlies’ fast break points & points in the paint: 1st
- Grizzlies points per game: 113.8 (3rd)
- Magic points allowed per game: 111.7 (20th)
This is as prime a redemption spot as there is in the association. For what it’s worth, the Magic have improved somewhat on the defensive end. Over the last 15 games, they’re 13th in defensive efficiency. Not bad. But they’re pace (2nd the last 15 games) paired with their lack of discipline will be a problem tonight. The Grizzlies are fantastic at forcing turnovers (13.4 forced per game, good for 8th overall) and even better at capitalizing on them. I mean, they were able to force turnovers against the CELTICS, who have been playing lights-out-basketball for a good month+ now. Get ready, Orlando.
The Magic, meanwhile, have to pick themselves up and travel across Canada’s border down to Memphis in less than 24 hours for this contest. I think it’s reasonable to assume that, as human beings, their disposition will show as rather docile tonight. Wendall Carter Jr., Orlando’s center, has been a key piece for them in recent weeks. He’s questionable tonight and did not play against the Raptors Friday; if he doesn’t go, that’s even more reason to believe that Memphis will get to the front court early and often. Few NBA offenses are explosive and readily aggressive as what the Grizzlies bring game-to-game; expect that to show in all 48 minutes Saturday night.
Memphis dropped 135 on the Magic in their first battle. Nine of the last twelve Grizzlies games have gone over. Tonight they’ll meet (very) little resistance against a tired, traveled Orlando roster. Take the Grizzlies to soar over their team total and don’t look back.
PS- The Grizzlies are one of the best 1Q teams in the association. Their first quarter line is high (-5), but I wouldn’t be surprised if it hits.
