This week’s free pick features one of the worst NFL teams against one of the best, although the latter has seen some struggles recently. Steve and I are still hitting at a high rate in Circa heading into Week 13. Check out our official Circa Picks post tomorrow here at TheOddsBreakers and let’s get some more wins!
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NFL Circa Picks: 38-21-1
NBA Picks: 79-66 (54%), +14.34 units
Rams -13 (-105), 2.1 units: Most professional sports bettors set their own lines and power ratings before a game to assess how accurate the sportsbooks are. In this game, the power-rating disparity is huge. Despite some of their recent woes, the Rams are still one of the premiere teams in the NFL. They’re absolutely stacked with talent on both sides of the ball; they have one of the brightest minds in the game as their coach, they have a stud QB who can make all the throws, and they have two of the best defensive players in the world in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. Sunday they’ll welcome an inexperienced, talent-poor opponent in the Jacksonville Jaguars. Their record indicates as much, but let’s look at some glaring stats that suggest the Jaguars match up very poorly against the Rams:
- Points per game: 15.7, Rank: 31st
- Opponent points per game: 25.7, Rank: 26th
- 3rd down conversion rate: 34.56%, Rank: 28th
- TDs per game: 1.9, Rank: 28th
- Yards per pass: 5.7, Rank: 31st
- Opponent pass completion %: 71.31%, Rank: 31st
- Turnover margin per game: -1.2, Rank: 31st
The Rams have lost 3 games in a row, but let’s not forget who they lost against. LAR has gone up against some of the best and most motivated teams in the NFL– the Titans, the 49ers (who always seem to best the Rams), and the Packers at Lambeau Field. It’s time for LAR to get some redemption. The Rams love to throw the ball and they do it very well (7.8 yards per pass, ranked 4th overall). They’re also top 10 in ppg (27.2) and although their defense has underperformed as of late, they only allow 5.3 yards per play and 3.9 yards per rush. That second stat is important because the only thing the Jaguars have done well is run the ball. James Robinson is one of the league’s most underrated running backs, rushing for 654 yards and 7 TDs so far this season. Robinson was limited in practice Friday and is now questionable for this contest. If he’s out, that’s a big loss for Jacksonville.
First year QB Trevor Lawrence has to go against an angry Aaron Donald and a Rams defense that’s top 10 in sack percentage. First year coach Urban Meyer has to travel across the continental U.S. to take on the brilliant Sean McVay, a coach who prides himself on puzzling defensive minded coaches. And Matthew Stafford, after having 3 of his worst games of the season, has to be salivating for some revenge on Sunday.
This is a “get right” game for the Rams. Although it’s tough to bet such a huge number against a professional football team, the Jaguars shouldn’t be a team that scares anybody. The Jags have lost by an average margin of 12.8 points this year. That’s right at the number, credit to the books, but all the intangibles stack up in favor of the Rams and by now we know that favorites of 10+ hit more often than they don’t (over 60% heading into this season over the last 5 years). They’re at home, they need a big win, they match up really well against Jacksonville, and they’re in a division where they can’t afford to fall asleep at the wheel. Trust that the Rams will take care of business in a big way Sunday.
