Back in 2014, these two octagon warriors battled without much drama. McGregor dropped Dustin in less than 2 minutes, avoiding Dustin’s patented uppercut and overwhelming him with high-arching kicks and straight punches. It was a dominant performance, but that was before Connor blew up to superstardom and Dustin was still green. On Saturday night (Sunday in Abu Dhabi), the two meet again and a lot has changed. I think it’ll make for a much more competitive fight.
McGregor made his UFC return last January, making quick work of Donald Cerrone with another first round TKO. The Irishman’s talent is sometimes overshadowed by his fame, but make no mistake about it- McGregor is one of the greatest strikers in MMA history. Dustin knows that, and Dustin is the main reason why I think this fight goes over 2 rounds.
Dustin Poirier is a much different fighter now. Before losing to Khabib, who’s arguably the greatest UFC fighter of all time (or at least top 3), Poirier was on a 4 fight win streak, knocking off one big name after another: Pettis, Gaethje, Alvarez, Holloway, and he almost caught Khabib, too. In his last fight, Poirier went the distance with Dan Hooker, another striking specialist, and won by decision. Anyone who’s watched Poirier the past few years knows that his boxing is much improved. He has great power, he’s incredibly precise, landing nearly 50% of his punches, and his defense is significantly better. He can also take a serious beating, something he’s become a bit famous for.
Although Connor fights aggressively by nature, we think he’ll enter this fight with more respect (and more patience) for Dustin. That’s probably a wise move. Poirier will be highly motivated but he’ll have to be guarded, too, unless he wants another repeat of 2014. I think it’ll mean a calculated, strike-for-strike contest that could very well go the distance.
Pick: Over 2.5 rounds (+130), 2 units
Note: In a recent interview with ESPN’s Ariel Helwani, McGregor expressed respect for Dustin and said that he hopes the fight goes all five rounds. Not a bad sign for this bet!
