The NBA Finals and the NBA season may come to a close tonight, but something tells me Boston will bring their A-game at home against the surging Warriors. What’s our best bet for tonight’s Game 6 showdown? Check it out, below!
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Warriors/Celtics over 210, 1.5 units: There’s a lot of reasons to continually bet the under in these NBA Finals. We know that, for myriad reasons, NBA playoff games tend to slow down tremendously and offer much lower totals. Part of that is an uptick in defensive effort, part of that is the jitters of the moment, and part of that is just how plainly intense these contests are. Few shots go up without a sustained effort to find open space, and that’s especially true against these two superior defenses. So then why do we like the over? Let’s take a look at just a few reasons why we think a higher-scoring game is due:
- Steph Curry ended his 233-game streak of hitting a 3-point shot, and the Warriors still won and put over 100 points of offense. Call me crazy, but I’m thinking he’ll hit quite a few more tonight. 233 straight games? Pretty good sample size.
- Jayson Tatum has played reluctantly throughout these NBA Finals, but there’s evidence to suggest he’ll turn that around and boost the Boston offense tonight. In elimination games, he’s averaging 32 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 assists in the 2022 playoffs.
- The pace of the NBA Finals has been uncharacteristically fast, averaging 96 possessions per game. The tendency for both teams to move quickly in transition in an attempt to throw off the other’s half-court defense has been constant, too.
- Both squads showed their poorest efforts yet in offensive rebounding (12 combined) in Game 5 – I’d expect quite a few more second-chance opportunities tonight.
- Field goal percentages have been down for both teams in the last 2 games. Part of that is a nod to these exceptional defenses, but a bigger part of that is just poor shooting, even when their stars are getting open looks. The Warriors shot 44% in Game 4 and 46.6% in Game 5. The Celtics shot 40% in Game 4 and 41% in Game 5. Even more shocking, Boston shot an average of 35% in the 1st, 2nd, and 4th quarters of Game 5. We expect positive regression from both units tonight.
We keep waiting and waiting for the Celtics to come out more aggressively in the 1st quarter of these contests. Whenever that’s happened, they not only won the game, but the score soared way over the projected total (216 and 228 points in 2 Celtics’ wins). The Warriors offense can always bring it and the fact that Steph Curry had a down game on Monday is NOT good news for Boston. Either way, Ime Udoka and the home-team Celtics know that, with Golden State’s defense using complex switches and looks on defense, it’s Boston that needs to attack and throw off “Dub City.”
