Timmeeeee for a free pick! This is a tough game to predict – the Mavericks have their backs to the wall and need to win to stay alive, but all the Warriors have done is prove that they still have championship DNA in their blood, going 3-0 to take a commanding lead in this series. Below is my favorite play in this contest.
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Mavs 1Q -0.5 (-115), 1.5 units: We’ve seen this story before. A few things are terribly relevant for this game and although it may be scary taking Dallas to win at this point, for obvious reasons, there are plenty of other angles to consider. Let’s start with the most glaring: the Golden State Warriors apparently hate winning playoff series on the road. That’s been true in the past but it’s even more apparent this postseason. Let’s take a look at what they’ve done in 2 road games when they could’ve closed out the series:
At Denver, Game 4, the Warriors:
- Were outscored 63-52 at the half
- Allowed 56% from the field and 48% from beyond the arc
- Allowed Jokic to score 37 points and shoot 66% from the field
At Memphis, Game 5, the Warriors:
- Were outscored 77-50 at the half
- Allowed 47.5% from the field and 44% from 3-point-land
- Allowed Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson to have hugely productive games
As you can see, the Warriors played their worst defense, by far, in these scenarios. In Game 3, the table was set for the Mavericks to have a great shooting game and in all likelihood, snag a win. It just didn’t happen. Dallas was served with wide-open shots throughout the first half and just couldn’t hit a single bucket. They didn’t land their first 3-pointer until 5 minutes left in the 1st quarter, scoring only 22 points in the first 12 minutes and it probably should’ve been worse – they had only 17 points with 1 minute left. Even with how crappy they played, they still led by a 2-point margin at the end of the first half.
Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson should lead an aggressive charge to begin this game. They’re at home, they’re obviously desperate, and they’re at their best when they’re aggressive offensively and nailing their shots with just a tad more efficiency (sarcasm intended). Efficient offense enables Dallas to settle into their half-court defense and at least attempt to slow down the rhythmic, assist-oriented offense that’s become the magic of the Golden State Warriors. The only way we can look is to expect positive regression from Dallas, at least in the opening quarters of this crucial game. Would we be surprised if the Warriors stole the 3rd quarter and ultimately closed out this series? No. They’re the better team; this is just our best bet for today. Take the Mavs early.
