It’s the battle of Aarons Saturday as Aaron Donald and the Rams’ #1 defense head to Lambeau Field to take on Aaron Rodgers and the high-powered Packers for our first Divisional Round playoff contest. The Rams defense leads the league in a ton of categories, including yards allowed, points allowed, passing yards allowed, and first downs allowed. Meanwhile, the Green Bay offense leads the league in a bunch of offensive categories, including points per game, points per drive, passing TDs, and fewest turnovers. What a conundrum! This should lead to an entertaining game that goes back and forth as the sun sets in Wisconsin, but we favor the Packers and the far better QB.
Aaron Rodgers isn’t having a good year; he’s having a phenomenal year. The two-time MVP has never looked better, throwing for 4299 yards, an over 70% completion percentage, 48 TDs and only 5 INTs. Even in the modern NFL, those are insane stats. He’s also getting the ball out significantly quicker than last year (around 2.5 seconds per pass) and throwing receivers open at eye-popping angles like the Aaron of old. I respect Jalen Ramsey and what he’s done all year- he’s undeniably the NFL’s best cornerback, shutting down the likes of D.K. Metcalf (twice), Stefan Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, and Mike Evans- but the connection between Rodgers and Devante Adams is something special. We know Jared Goff will be starting for LAR, and that gives us even more reason to fade the Rams. Coach Sean McVay is a brilliant schemer, but it’s hard to back an average QB against a Packers offense that, although challenged today, should be able to still put up plenty of points. Goff is inconsistent and can freeze under pressure; how will the Rams keep up? I don’t think they can, especially not with 8,000 Green Bay screaming fans back at Lambeau. The Packers defense will make plenty of stops, as they have all season, and Rodgers will be even more fired up with a home crowd. This doesn’t bode well for LAR. Packers will pull away in the fourth quarter.
Pick: Packers -6.5, 2 units
Key Trend: Playoff teams that lost the conference championship the year prior are 33-15 ATS, and 21-3 ATS when facing an opponent who just won by double digits (GB fits both these categories). Credit- Ralph Michaels
