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Raiders +4 (-110), 1.5 units: There’s a lot of reasons to like the Raiders tonight, and much of it has to do with the Ravens. Before we get into that, let’s look at some sharp angles that automatically have us favoring Chuckie’s (Gruden, to the layperson) team:
- The game is at Vegas and Allegiant Stadium will have full fans for the first time ever. Like the Golden Knights, one should expect a rather raucous and unique atmosphere and also like the Knights, I expect it’ll make a difference.
- The Raiders are yet another home underdog. Home dogs went 4-2 ATS Sunday.
- Home crowds usually help a defense– the Raiders will need that tonight.
I’m not one to understate what Lamar Jackson is capable of. All the Ravens QB does is win– he’s 34-12 all time as the Ravens’ starter; that’s a 74% win rate over the past 3 seasons. Needless to say, that’s freakin’ impressive. The issue with the Ravens’ offense is that we’ve seen it before. Everyone has seen it before. And although it’s mostly worked, I think their offense is less talented heading into the 2021 season.
Baltimore’s receivers are small. Sammy Watkins (is he considered their #1 receiver? Honestly, we’re not sure..) is their tallest guy at 6’1″ and it drops off from there. Of course big Mark Andrews is 6’5″ 250 plus, but he can’t catch every ball in the red zone, can he (maybe, he’s a beast)? Watkins and Marquise Brown and Duvernay and others are all long-ball guys. Oh and in case you haven’t heard, they’re absolutely depleted at running back. Ty’Son Williams, the undrafted RB from BYU, will apparently start for Baltimore Monday night. He’s the only RB who’s been on their roster before last Wednesday. Le’Veon Bell and Latavius Murray will back him up, but I can only imagine how little they know the playbook at this point. Baltimore is typically built to run the ball and dominate time of possession, but I’m not sure that they can expect the same production early this year.
Now let’s talk about the Raiders. For all they have to improve upon, and it’s a lot, this is a perfect setup for Jon Gruden. Gruden loves to motivate his players for big games at the start of a new season. The Raiders have hope and they’re in a huge market with a lot of fanfare in that new stadium– I have to think Chuckie will capitalize. And for what it’s worth, Vegas has won the past two season openers under Gruden. The Raiders’ defense will have issues defending Lamar tonight, no doubt, but I think their offense can keep them in the game. Baltimore’s #1 Cornerback, Marcus Peters, went down with an ACL tear in practice earlier last week. Anthony Averett, a 3rd year corner out of Alabama with limited experience, will replace Peters. Expect Derek Carr and Gruden to expose that matchup.
The Raiders were top 10 in nearly every offensive category this year. Their defense is their weakness, but if they can improve that even slightly and limit Lamar for moments during this contest, they’ll have a legitimate advantage with a wild Vegas crowd, an inspired head coach, and a very capable offense. The Raiders are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 Monday games; I’ll take the home team in the new Black Hole!
