The Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals play the second game of a three-game set Tuesday at Nationals Park. Lefty ace Trevor Rogers will get the nod for the Marlins. He is 7-6 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 101 1/3 innings pitched across 18 starts. RHP Paolo Espino will step to the mound tonight for the Nationals. He is 2-2 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.07 WHIP across 46 IP spanning 5 starts and 16 relief appearances. The Nats are coming off their game last night with the Marlins where they put up 18 runs and I do not see them slowing down as they rank 4th in the league vs lefties in wOBA this season. Since coming out of the break, the Nats own the best wOBA, OPS, SLG, and have the most triples and homeruns in the MLB. In addition, Rogers has seen his ERA increase each of the last 3 months so there is a good chance for continued regression. Also, Miami ranks in the bottom 3rd of the league in runs scored and ranks 26th in the majors in weighted on base average in the first five innings of their ballgames. A strength for Miami has been their excellent pen, so we will stay away and take the first 5 at plus money. Take the Nationals F5 +110
Garrett Richards gets the ball for the Red Sox and he posts a 4.91 ERA and 1.68 WHIP on the season. Over his past 7 starts, the right-hander has pitched to a 7.11 ERA with opponents hitting .361 off him. In addition to that, he has posted a horrible 1.96 WHIP in the past month. The Blue Jays have gotten to the Red Sox righty for 10 runs on 22 hits while drawing 12 walks in 16 2-3 innings of work over three starts. These bullpens are too unpredictable so well stick with the first five innings. The Blue Jays will counter with right-hander Thomas Hatch. This will be his first start in the majors but at AAA-Buffalo he posted a 2.15 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 29.1 innings pitched. Well, triple A and the Red Sox are completely different animals, especially since their bats came alive last night scoring 13 runs and the over is 7-0 in the Blue Jays’ last seven games when facing a right-handed starter. These bullpens are too unpredictable so well stick with the first five innings. Toronto has scored the most runs in the first five innings at home this season and also own the best wOBA on the year. In addition to the Jays bats thriving, Boston ranks 4th in runs scored in the first five innings on the road and also rank right behind the Jays in F5 wOBA. If you combine their F5 average runs, you get 6.81 runs per game in the 1st five innings. So, if you combine this pitching matchup versus these bats, we love the over to hit, literally. Take F5 Over 6.5 runs
