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CFB Pick
2 Team 7 pt Teaser/-130/Small
OK St +11.5
USC +9
Oklahoma St vs Texas A&M 6:45 pm
We missed the best number of 7 a couple of weeks ago. Had to see if Hubbard was going to play for OK St and he is. QB Sanders also appears to be playing though I would have been ok with the backup Brown, though Sanders offers more versatility and mobility.
Oklahoma St has been competitive most of the season. They won 4 straight before a loss at Oklahoma in bad weather that was actually closer than the 34-16 score.
OK St is 9-2 ATS last 11 vs team with a winning record
OK St is 7-1 ATS following a loss
OK St is 12-2 last 14 as a dog
OK St is 5-1 ATS last 6 neutral site games
Oklahoma St is #16 in rush offense and #16 in total offense.
OK St averages 35.2 ppg in road games while Texas A&M scores 13.5 on the road.
PF/PA for OK St in their last 3 is 22.3/20 while it is 16.7/25 for Texas A&M.
OK St went over 200 yards rushing in a game 8 times this season
I just am not impressed with anything that Texas A&M does. They put up zero fight vs LSU losing 50-7 being out gained by 384 yards. They were competitive against a really disappointing Georgia team, lost 19-13. They were -6 in the last 3 games in turnover margin .
The Aggies were out gained by Arkansas in a neutral site game and held to 89 yards rushing and 2.2 ypc in a game that Texas A&M eventually won 31-27.
Texas A&M beat up on the likes of Texas St, Lamar, and UTSA. They did score wins over Miss St and South Carolina by decisive margins though they allowed 433 yards to Miss St and only out gained them by 8 yards in the contest.
Oklahoma St opened the season with a win at Oregon St who ended up being a better team than many expected. They lost by 6 at Texas but the game was very even statistically in key areas. In 3 of OK State’s 4 losses, their opponent rushed for over 200 yards with Texas Tech being the exception as the Red Raiders went for 586 total yards, 424 passing in a 45-35 loss by Ok St. Ok St was -5 in turnovers in that game and still scored 35. OK St is +6 in turnovers over the last 5 games.
Texas A&M combined for 74 yards rushing in their final 2 losses to Georgia and LSU. OK St also went to Iowa St and won 34-27. This is a good team OK St, they compete, they are consistent on offense and are multi-faceted on offense which I don’t feel Texas A&M is.
USC vs Iowa 8 pm
I haven’t loved Iowa this season. We got a money line win with them early in the season but their offense has not been one that gives you a bunch of confidence if they have to score points.
USC might be the best offense the Hawkeyes have faced all season. The best passing team Iowa faced before this might have been Minnesota in which they allowed 431 total yards total, second most this season only to Wisconsin and allowed 368 passing yards to the Gophers, the most vs any team this season. The 2 highest scoring outputs by Iowa vs Power 5 opponents was 27 at Nebraska, a 27-24 win, and 26 at home in a 26-20 win over Purdue. Far from impressive in my book. The fact that those were both 1 score games has to make you rethink Iowa and who they are.
USC started the season with nearly 1400 total yards in their first 3 games. They then had an injury to their QB and still beat Utah handing the Utes the first of 2 losses this season. The Trojans have the #5 passing offense this season. I think they will pose some problems for Iowa. USC closed the season with total yard games of 547, 462 and 643. They passed for nearly 1,400 yards in those games.
Iowa still has a very good defense but this offense should be better than what they have played as far as the pass game. The game is in San Diego. USC should have a nice crowd.
I would like USC a little at a spread of +3 but we don’t have that. I think a 7 pt teaser getting them +9 in this match up looks good.
