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*CBB(1u): Xavier ML(-125) @ Seton Hall–6 PM CT
I think this is a great spot to buy low on Xavier. The Musketeers have lost 3 of their last 4 games by a combined 4 points, and after seeing them lose outright to a soaring Villanova team earlier this week, the market has overreacted. Xavier checks all the “intangible” boxes it takes to win on the road, and this happens to be a favorable matchup as well.
If you can shoot the 3, you will have every chance to beat the Musketeers. Xavier ranks 306th in opponent 3pt FG%, which is why you see the likes of Butler and Villanova hanging with them. Fortunately for Xavier, this is not a matchup where that will get exploited. Seton Hall attempts the 35th fewest 3’s per game in the country and shoots just 32% from beyond the arc. Xavier’s defense stiffens up considerably in their interior, and I think they hold a clear edge over a Pirates offense that ranks just 250th in 2pt FG%.
Xavier is one of the most balanced offenses in America, and I absolutely trust them down the stretch of this game. Despite shooting 39.5% from beyond the arc(5th in CBB), Xavier remains committed to taking good shots and also excels at scoring around the rim(36th in 2pt FG%). This Seton Hall defense is no slouch defending the ball, and they will force some TO’s in this game. With that said, their overall sloppiness offensively negates whatever advantage they could’ve gained in this area.
There is a misnomer that Seton Hall is this unbelievably physical team. That’s true in certain areas, but this team is flat out weak on the boards; they rank 281st in defensive rebounding % and are very mediocre on the offensive glass as well. This is a sneaky advantage Xavier will have on both ends of the floor.
Xavier is one of the most experienced teams in CBB, which is becoming a critical factor if I’m going to back a team on the road in this sort of spot. I also feel comfortable trusting Xavier over the full game given Seton Hall hits just 68% of their FT’s(300th in CBB) and my general trust in their offense down the stretch.
