Well here we are, Friday before a big weekend of college football. I still haven’t given up on MLB as it has been a very good year so far. Last ten days 19-14-1 up over 10 units. As we head into the last 30 games or so for most teams, there is still plenty of value to be had. Want all my picks for MLB, NCAAF and NFL? Hit me up on twitter @TheGreatKnoche
Today’s free pick involves the Brewers and the Cardinals renewing their NL Central rivalry. The Brewers are the class of the division and hold a 10 game lead over the Reds and 12.5 over the Cardinals. They have it all but locked up. I have a nice bet going on the Brewers at +575 to win the National League which I am loving right now. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 2.5 Games back of the Reds for the final playoff spot and still have a lot to play for.
The pitching matchup for today features a pair of aces in Adam Wainwright and Freddy Peralta. Freddy Peralta comes back off the IL to make this start from a case of shoulder inflammation. This could have been just the Brewers trying to manage some of his innings before the playoffs as he struggled against this same Cardinals team last time out. On the year he is holding a 2.45 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and an amazing 12.16 K/9. He does have an absurdly low BABIP at .212 which is due still for some normalization. Adam Wainwright has been stellar since the start of August allowing only 7 ER in 44 IP. On the year he has a 2.97 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and an excellent 4/1 K/BB Ratio.
The Brewers hold the slight edge on offense vs RHP with a .720 OPS vs .692 for the Cards. Last 10 games Cardinals are scoring 4.3 Runs per game, The Brewers 3.7. Paul Goldschmidt has been on fire the last week hitting .391 with 3 HRs and 9 RBIs. He has a .500 BA and 2 HRs vs Peralta in 8 career ABs.
The Brewers are coming back from a west coast road trip that ended yesterday and the Cards had the day off. It’s a great spot play and the numbers support Wainwright continuing to dominate. I Believe he will pitch well and I see the Cards jumping out early off Peralta in a low scoring game. Cardinals F5 +150
