Baseball season continues chugging along. I am not having the greatest season in MLB, but we’re plodding with promise. April we were down just over 10 Units, and then we got 13 back in May, followed by a 10 unit downswing in June. For the season we currently sit at -8.6 Units, but I have a 100+ Unit MLB season on my record so I believe in my methods. Most of my plays in MLB are 1 or 1.5 units, with some very rare 2 Unit plays.
My Analysis today turns to Petco Park in San Diego, CA where the San Diego Padres (48-43) will host the Arizona Diamondbacks (43-44) at 9:40 ET. The current line sits with the Diamondbacks as slight favorites at -112 (Padres -108) with an Over/Under of 8.5 juiced to the under at -120. Game time temperature will be 71 degrees under partly cloudy skies with the wind blowing out slightly to right at roughly 7mph.
The Snakes have played much better as of late going 17-12 since June 1st to climb back into the NL Wild Card race. They were a Game 1 blown save away from sweeping the Dodgers to start the week and put up 26 runs in their three game set at Chavez Ravine.
They will start Slade Cecconi on Friday night. He is the owner of a 5.81 ERA, which looks slightly inflated with his 4.41 xFIP. He has also been much better on the road with a 3.35 ERA outside of AZ and an 11.65 ERA at home. He has had good control only walking 1.73 Batters per 9 innings, while rocking a strikeout rate of 7.53 K/9. The Snakes are 5-7 in games that Cecconi starts this year. This Padres team hit him hard when they faced him in San Diego in early June chasing him after 4.1 IP giving up 3 runs on 7 hits.
The Padres have been on a very good run the last two weeks going 11-3 and averaging 5.93 Runs per game during that stretch. They return home tonight and have a nice long 9 game home stand before the All-Star Break.
The Friars will start Randy Vasquez. He has a 4.88 ERA, with a 4.72 xFIP. He has really struggled to strike batters out at the major league level with a career K/9 at only 6.55. He does limit walks as well though to a tune of 2.26 BB/9 so far in 2024. He has been a bit unlucky on batted ball statistics in 2024 with a .362 BABIP against. He also started against the Diamondbacks in early June allowing three runs in 6.2 IP allowing 6 hits with no walks and three strikeouts. He will need to find a way to cool off Christian Walker who is hitting .542 with 5 Home Runs in his last six games.
So where does my handicap fall on this game? I am looking at a couple of key metrics in making a differentiation between two very similar pitchers taking the mound tonight.
First on the offensive side of things. Both of these teams are solid checking in at 8th and 9th in runs scored (San Diego has 421 and Arizona 420.) The difference is in OPS vs Right Handed pitching where San Diego has a clear advantage with a .760 mark good for third in MLB. Aiding that number is that the Padres strikeout at the second lowest rate in MLB and when facing a guy without put away stuff like Cecconi they should get plenty of wood on the ball.
Secondly the Padres bullpen has performed much better in 2024. Arizona is 23rd in MLB with a 4.38 Bullpen ERA while the Padres sit at 3.83. The Padres may hold back some of their top arms as they have pitched in back to back games. While the DBacks aren’t in any back to back trouble, they did use plenty of bullpen pitches overall in the series with the Dodgers with four of their arms going in two of three games and two other guys throwing over 40 pitches in a game. They actually made a move to call up a fresh bullpen arm for tonight.
Fat Friars Feed
Padres -108 1.5 Units
BONUS FREE PARLAY – 1 Unit Orioles and Royals + 151
