Tonight we have three games on the slate in the NCAA (not including the coveted Harvard-Brown match up in Providence) and all three games should be worth watching. So if you’re not hitting the town and you find yourself on your couch tonight kick back, grab a cold brew, and put your money on my picks.
FAU (+13) @ UCF 7:00pm EST ESPN
We kick things off with an in-state rivalry as Lane Kiffin and the Florida Atlantic Owls travel to Orlando to take on the 2017 National Champion* UCF Golden Knights (-13). FAU came into the season looking to make some noise with resdshirt freshman and Oklahoma transfer quarterback Chris Robinson, but he hasn’t quite lived up to the hype. Robinson had a gem of a game vs Air Force where threw for 471 yards and 3 TDs, but only threw for 171 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs last week vs FCS Bethune-Cookman.
UCF’s game last week was postponed due to Hurricane Florence and so far this season they haven’t played anybody particularly good BUT they have a lot to prove. During last year’s undefeated season, UCF made a case for a spot in the playoffs but were ultimately denied that opportunity. With FAU getting blown out at Oklahoma week 1, UCF has an upcoming match up that the college football playoff committee can measure up vs an Oklahoma team that has a great shot to make it back to the playoffs. The committee may pinpoint this game over any of UCF’s schedule to see if the talent level is on par with Oklahoma or another major Power 5 team.
UCF returns all 5 starters from last year’s offensive line in addition to stud Quarterback McKenzie Milton AND 74% of overall production from the 2017 team. The Golden Knights not only play this game as a rivalry game, but a prove-it game and is my #MattyLewLockoftheWeek. I have them handicapped at -17.5 and the I think their defense (which returns 76% of overall production) shuts down Robinson so I’m sprinkling a half unit on the under.
Verdict:
UCF -13 (2u)
Under 75.5 (.5u)
Penn State (-28.5) @ Illinois 9:00pm EST FS1
Trace McSorely and Penn State will travel to Champaign, Illinois to take on the Fighting Illini tonight. Penn State has won their past 2 games with a combined score of 114-16 after surviving a Week 1 overtime scare vs Appalachian State. The Nittany Lions are straight up rolling right now. They went to Pitt and took care of business allowing 6 points and 272 to in-state “rivals”. With conference play starting at Illinois, Penn State looks to keep the momentum rolling with he 30th ranked offense.
Illinois, however, is no slouch team. They haven’t had a tough schedule but the Fighting Illini are trying to turn the page in their not-so-memorable recent history. They are 8th in the country in turnover margin so far and should be 3-0 if it wasn’t for 18 fourth quarter points let up last week vs USF.
I think this game will go closer than people expect and might be a 1 score game going into the half. Penn State faces a massive matchup next week against Ohio State and the news with Nick Bosa forces them to eyeball that game. I see them looking ahead, not focusing on Illinois as much as they should. The start of the Lovie Smith era combined with the nighttime atmosphere is a good recipe for a cover here by Illinois. Anytime there is a 28 point underdog at home with a winning record, take that to the bank.
Verdict:
Illinois +28 (1u)
Washington St (+4.5) @ USC 10:30pm EST ESPN
Washington State will take their 3-0 record to the Coliseum Friday night in a Pac-12 match up vs USC. The Trojans just came off an embarrassing loss at Texas where they were looking to make a statement on national TV. I admittedly thought the Trojans were going to go in and take care of business but their offense looked lost most of the game.
Washington State clearly has the offensive advantage with Graduate transfer quarterback Gardner Minshew at the helm. Last week, he threw for 470 yards and two touchdowns against FCS Eastern Washington. Minshew has looked incredible, throwing for over 400 yards in the past two games and 319 week 1 vs Wyoming. The Cougars and Minshew will face their first big test tonight against a very strong USC defense although they lost some credibility last week.
As for the Trojans, this is an early season must-win game. If the Trojans lose this game, they will already have 3 losses and will dig themselves in a deep hole early in the year. JT Daniels needs to make better decisions in this game and show that he is maturing week-to-week. Daniels has a lot on his plate leading one of the most prolific college teams at only 18 years old.
The key to this game for USC is to keep their offense on the field and slow down Washington State, but I don’t see it happening. Daniels has a a long way to go before fulfilling his potential and I think the 2018 season will be more of a learning curve than a success story. I’m taking Washington St +4.5 and sprinkling the moneyline.
Verdict:
Washington St +4.5 (1u)
Washington St ml (.5u)
*Alabama is clearly 2017 National Champs but this is why the playoffs should be at least 6 teams
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