Well there’s nothing like going to bed when the bet the over on two NBA teams who scored 135 points in the first fucking half. I was wrong about the Celtics and Nuggets but I wasn’t wrong about Memphis and Minnesota. How the hell do you only score 82 points in the two proceeding quarters? Unreal.
The NBA is every day so we can’t allow ourselves to get TOO pissed off but my goodness, feels like we almost exclusively lose because of BS like that. Onto Saturday in the NBA and our CFB and UFC picks are below, too.
NBA Picks (41-28-1, +10.54 units):
Nets/Clippers over 212.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
I have this total at 218 and I’d take it up to 215. I realize the Nets have been playing better defense and that the Clippers can absolutely clamp down and limit good offenses, but both teams are coming off enough rest and I like how explosive and efficient the Nets’ offense has been. You could say the same about the Clippers. LAC has averaged 113.75 pts in their last four wins and they’re 11th in offensive efficiency over their last 5 games. The Nets are 10th. The Clippers are playing faster, too, which could affect and stimulate the scoring. One of these quarters or halves will probably be pretty low scoring, but I think it ultimately gets close to 220 with some great shot-making from Durant and Paul George.
Celtics/Pistons under 225.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This is a regression play. Neither team shot very well in their last contest but they both played with pace and could evidently care less about any sort of defense. I don’t think that happens in this spot. Typically the second meeting looks a lot different and even better, Detroit’s number 1 scorer Cade Cunningham isn’t 100%. This total should drop significantly at some point in the contest. I’d take it down to 222.
Raptors/Pacers over 229.5 (-110), to win 2 units
Welp, here we go with another 2 unit totals play. These are the teams the Raptors dominate offensively. They’re too big, too long, and they can still run the floor with a team like Indiana. We saw it in big wins against the Hawks, Rockets, and Spurs, and the Pacers fit the same profile. Thing is, Indiana is off 3 days of rest, at home, and they love to run with pace. This line is weird or else I’d normally take Toronto, but it looks like they might be sitting a few key figures. Doesn’t matter. The players are all built with the same mentality and Toronto as a roster has size advantages all over.
76ers -3 (-110), to win 1 unit
Revenge game at home; let’s not overthink it. Atlanta is way better on their own court and not so much when they face good teams on the road. And the 76ers NEED this game. They’re 5-7 and they’ve lost 3 out of their last 4 games. Dropping a game to Phoenix is one thing; dropping two straight to an Atlanta team that’s not perfectly in-sync yet is another. Philly wins and covers at their home floor.
CFB Week 11 Picks (39-38-7, -4.05 units):
Army 1H under 9.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Army goes up against one of the best defenses in the nation, at Troy, and even though the Black Knights found success against lower level teams that can’t defend a high school team, the Troy Trojans aren’t that. Army’s inability to score points against above average defenses has been stark, scoring only 7 points against AF and 10 points against Wake Forest. I’m not sure if the Knights will get close to the endzone in this contest; that’s the reality we’re dealing with. I’ll take the Army TT under early, in case somehow they figure it out for the full game.
Marshall ML (EVEN), to win 1.5 units
Marshall only recently joined the Sunbelt conference but since they started facing App State, each team has won on their home field. It’s Marshall’s turn this year. The Thundering Herd are exceptional on defense, particularly against the run. They’re 4th nationally against the run, allowing only 2.9 yards per carry. App State still prefers to be a run-first team. Like most Sunbelt offenses, the Mountaineers have limitations and they need the run game to ignite their passing attack. I don’t think the Herd lets them get comfortable. Marshall can control the ball on the ground, they run the ball on 59% of their plays, and keep the game low scoring and close. We know that these home-field advantages can be deadly and this will be a tough crowd for the Mountaineers to overcome. Give me the Herd for 1.5 units.
Notre Dame -15.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Some people will say “Navy always plays Notre Dame close” but this is a neutral site game and the Irish should be able to control the ball with their defense and a growing offensive attack led by a dynamic rushing attack. Notre Dame has put up 40 ppg against better defenses than Navy the last 3 weeks and I’m not sure the Midshipmen will be able to score many points on ND’s defense. They’re starting to look more like the unit we saw in Week 1 against the Buckeyes. All ND for me.
TCU +7.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This should probably be the the reckoning for TCU and I don’t think they’re the true #4 team in the country, but they should be feisty on Saturday. Texas is a better defensive team against the run which means the Horned Frogs potent passing attack should be able to stretch the field and free up some quick passes and trick-runs. Now that this is at +7.5, it’s passing into disrespectful territory and TCU will be plenty motivated to prove they can hang with a big dog like Texas.
UFC 281 (13-15, +10.38 units in 2022):
Ulberg/Negumereanu goes the distance (+150), to win 1.5 units
Carlos Puelles (+132), to win 1.32 units
Michael Chandler (+185), to win 1.85 units
Molly McCann by KO, TKO, or DQ (+650), to win 3.25 units
Alex Pereira to win by majority or split decision (+2200), to win 11 units
